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Let's not beat about the bush and pretend that the result of the next Singapore presidential election is any way in doubt.
I'll allow that there might be some scenarios whereby Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for Social Policies, does not become Singapore's next president.
But looking at Tharman's electoral successes over the past two decades, I don't really see any realistic way that Tharman will lose an election.
A dominant figure in Singapore politics
Remember GE2020 and the thumping win pulled off by the PAP team in Jurong?
There were Tharman hard carry memes galore as the team stormed to a victory with 74.6 per cent of the vote.
Take nothing away from fellow Jurongians Tan Wu Meng, Rahayu Mahzam and newcomers Shawn Huang and Xie Yao Quan, but even one of their opponents admitted that Tharman was probably the "most popular" politician in Singapore.
Ever since he made his debut in the 2001 GE, Tharman has either walked over to victory or secured a win with more than 70 per cent of the vote.
The sole exception was the PAP's annus horribilis of 2011, and even then his team got nearly 67 per cent, a result that politicians in other democracies would kill for.
Why is Tharman so popular
The reasons for Tharman's popularity are myriad. He was a dynamic Education Minister, combining the EM1 and EM2 streams that eventually paved the way for abolition of streaming altogether in 2024.
As Finance Minister, Tharman helped steer the country through the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession, and in 2013, was recognised by Euromoney magazine for his efforts in restructuring the Singapore economy towards "productivity-driven" expansion and building a social safety net (or trampoline) for the needy.
But for the average Singaporean, whose day isn't exactly devoted to thinking about policy work, they might be more familiar with Tharman's appearances on the world stage, with his wit on full display as he defended Singapore policies.
If you disliked the PAP, you could at least appreciate seeing a Singaporean come off very well against a foreign critic. And if you were a supporter, it was full on stars in your eyes.
Also let's not forget the fact that Tharman is just a cool cat. Someone who appreciates both P Ramlee and David Bowie and writes poetry is at odds with the usual view of a dull grey technocrat.
According to Gillian Koh, Deputy Director (Research) at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) and Senior Research Fellow:
"This is truly a good choice given his domestic and international standing. He will draw many to Singapore, and doors will be open to him when he performs his role as Chief Diplomat of the country.
He is also recognised in his policy inclinations as someone who has had community at the heart of what he does even as a senior Cabinet minister. His standing has been established. His community role will therefore be delivered with credibility, with gravitas."
Inevitability
It's difficult to speculate on why Tharman wants to become president, aside from the reasons given in his letter to PM Lee.
Let's assume that it was entirely Tharman's decision, after receiving requests from people on the ground to run if Halimah Yacob refused to run for a second term.
It doesn't detract from the inevitability of Tharman's victory.
Tharman's record is unimpeachable, his popularity unchallenged. In fact there are even hot takes on whether someone can be too qualified to serve as Head of State and the final key to unlocking the nation's reserves. Such takes are of course silly.
As Eugene Tan, associate professor of law at SMU puts it, "Comments about being overqualified for the job overlook that there are stringent eligibility criteria for presidential candidates to begin with - vital given the significant custodial powers, which are more complex than is popularly assumed."
The former Nominated Member of Parliament argues that the role of a president, representing Singapore on the world stage and safeguarding the reserves, is not a job that "anyone can do."
"In my view, there can never be an overqualified president," Tan added.
In his decades of public service, Tharman has proven himself to be an honourable, successful politician. We'll need someone of his financial knowledge and ability to be a unifying figure as Singapore navigates uncharted waters amid U.S.-China tensions and the disruptive nature of new technologies like AI.
So why the repeated insistence that he must have a challenger?
Does a challenger even await?
This is a common refrain from many quarters, including Tharman himself.
During his first media appearance following the announcement, Tharman said he made "no assumptions" about his chances, including the rather puzzling remark that the election won't be a "political contest", unlike general elections.
While it is true that the president must be above partisan politics, it seems a stretch to completely overlook the fact that Tharman has been a PAP Member of Parliament for over two decades, and one of its most senior political figures. National politics will certainly play a part in the voters' minds for any election, including this one.
In another media appearance on Jun. 11, Tharman emphasised that if he becomes president, he will not be "on the same team as the government", using a football analogy.
"I'll be very clear about that," he said, adding that if anything, he will be a "referee."
Tharman also made himself abundantly clear that he would much prefer a contested election.
"I (would) much rather win or lose with a contest. My whole approach is not to shy away from competition. It's how I prove myself."
Now take a step back, pretend you don't live in Singapore, and think about how weird that is.
Would any other candidate in any other democracy ever say the same thing? Could you imagine Donald Trump turning down the opportunity to automatically win the presidency? Could you see Mahathir Mohamad wringing his hands about not having a "mandate" if he happened to stand and win unopposed? I have a feeling he and many others wouldn't mind at all.
While the reasons Tharman gave were entirely personal, it's hard not to recall the public disquiet that arose when Halimah Yacob ascended to the presidency in a walkover.
Tharman may want the contest for personal reasons, but it's also arguable that the lack of a contest would not be a good thing for the incumbent government.
Felix Tan, associate lecturer at NTU, told Mothership that he is personally excited and is looking forward to the upcoming election. He also feels that Tharman putting his name forward as a candidate is a good opportunity for Singaporeans to see if "race plays a part" in such a contest.
He added:
"I think we have always clamoured, Singaporeans have always clamoured that we want to see Tharman in a higher position. Well, he has put his name forward.
And then my next question is that well, if that is truly what Singaporeans want, then we hope that there will be a chance that they can vote and not have a walkover."
Why an election still matters
It looks like Tharman may get his wish. Already, rumours are swirling that at least one potential candidate may throw his hat in the ring.
Today quoted political observers speculating that George Goh, founder of Harvey Norman Ossia, businessman and philanthropist may be gearing up for a run.
Goh has stellar credentials as a businessman, and in another race, may very well win and serve as Singapore's president. But Goh does not have a national reputation compared to Tharman. It will be an uphill battle for Goh if more candidates join in and the so-called "anti-PAP" vote is split between them.
But let nothing of what I've written so far lead you to believe that I think an election would be a charade. Or to use the local term which will undoubtedly be used in some corners of the Internet, a wayang. Because nothing could be further from the truth.
We live in a time where democracy itself is under severe stress. Just two years ago, the "shining city on the hill" came under dire threat as pro-Trump rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol, attempting to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power. The democratically elected government of Myanmar was ousted in a military coup. Even as European countries send aid to the democratic government of Ukraine, there are questions over the state of Hungarian and Polish democracies.
Singapore's democracy
Democracy is a fundamental principle of the Singaporean identity - it's in our flag and in our pledge. While we may criticise certain aspects of that system (and many do), the principle itself must never been undermined. We are a democratic nation, and that has been our source of strength and success.
So let Tharman run. Let George Goh run, if he wishes, and any of the 1,250 persons who meets the criteria for the critical role of our Head of State and guardian of the reserves.
Let there be a contest, let ideas be shared and discussed and debated. Let the records of each candidate be placed under public scrutiny. Let us analyse how well each candidate does speaking to the media and the man on the street.
And once that's done and the campaigning is over, let Singaporeans line up at the ballot box, be it here or overseas, because our countrymen on foreign shores also deserve to make their voices heard.
Let us vote, because far too many people around the world cannot do the same.
Top image by Fasiha Nazren.