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Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a Conservative party vote of no confidence in the early morning of June 7 (Singapore time), but with numbers fewer than he may have preferred.
What happened?
As reported by the BBC, Johnson faced a vote of no confidence by members of parliament (MPs) from his own Conservative party.
The Conservatives have a mechanism where in the event that enough MPs feel that the party leader is no longer suitable for the role, they hold a secret ballot to determine if the leader can continue.
However, at least 15 per cent of sitting Conservative MPs are needed to trigger this vote. Currently there are 359 sitting Conservative party MPs, therefore 54 MPs are needed.
Disgruntled MPs may send a letter to Sir Graham Brady, head of the Conservative Private Member's Committee which represents the backbench (non cabinet level) Conservative MPs. Sir Graham tallies the number of letters, and calls a vote when they reach 54.
This was achieved over the weekend of June 4 and 5.
It is important to note that the vote was not for Johnson's position as Prime Minister, but as leader of his party. The ballot is secret but MPs may reveal their vote if they choose to.
A majority of senior cabinet ministers have publicly backed Johnson. This included Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer (equivalent to Singapore's Finance Minister), and Dominic Raab the deputy prime minister. Ministers, as well as any MPs with government positions, are expected to resign their position if they chose to vote against Johnson.
One such example is John Lamont, who was the Principle Private Secretary to the foreign minister Liz Truss. He resigned in order to vote against Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign minister, also publicly stated he would vote against Johnson.
The Result
Johnson won the support of 211 MPs or 59 per cent of the party. 148 MPs voted to remove him representing 41 per cent of the parliamentary party. Removing Johnson would have required 180 MPs to vote against him, half of the total plus one more.
As the result was read out by Brady, Conservative party members cheered and thumped their tables in support. According to current party rules, another vote of no confidence cannot be called for a year.
Theresa May, Johnson's predecessor, received more support when she also survived a similar vote in December 2018. She retained the nearly two thirds of the vote, but ended up resigning six months later.
Another Conservative prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, faced a similar vote in 1990 albeit under significantly different rules. While she won that vote with 204 votes against 152, she was compelled by her cabinet to resign after the result.
According to a Reuters report, about 165 MPs hold some form of government position, and were obligated to vote for Johnson.
That means of the remaining backbenchers, over 70 per cent voted to remove him, a massive indicator of how unpopular Johnson has become.
Why is Johnson so unpopular?
A major reason behind Johnson’s loss in support are a series of allegations, now known as ‘Partygate’, that he took part in several office parties in No 10 Downing Street during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Number 10 is both Johnson's official residence and the location of his work offices.
This was despite the country being in the midst of a strict pandemic lockdown, with everyone subject to restrictions on in-person gatherings.
For example, families were not allowed to visit ill or dying members in hospital, or attend their funerals should they pass on.
The starkest example of this was when Queen Elizabeth II’s husband Prince Philip died in 2021. British news outlets such as the Telegraph have contrasted the image of Queen Elizabeth mourning alone during her husband’s funeral service, in compliance with lockdown rules.
Meanwhile members of staff at No 10 had held farewell parties for staff members the night before.
According to an ITV report, Johnson attended at least one birthday celebration during the first lockdown in 2020.
Johnson and Sunak have already been issued fixed penalty notices by the police for contravening lockdown restrictions in June 2020.
Reaction to the result
Johnson welcomed the result, calling it decisive and that he was eager to move on to "the stuff that really matters to people". However, as he was doing so, journalist present reminded him that his result was worse that his predecessor.
Meanwhile reaction points to the result being overwhelmingly negative. The Telegraph called the victory "hollow", and that "rebels were circling to finish him off".
Opposition party leaders such as Labour's Sir Keir Starmer said Johnson was totally unfit for office, and that the electorate was utterly fed up with him.
Booed on the steps of St Paul's cathedral
Opposition to Johnson has been growing from within the Conservative party for some time.
As reported by the BBC, Conservative MP Christian Wakeford crossed the floor in January 2022, defecting to the opposition Labour party. Letters calling for Johnson's resignation have been gradually accumulating as more details of the scandal have been revealed.
Over the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee weekend, a threshold appears to have been crossed.
Johnson was reported as having been loudly booed as he entered St Paul’s Cathedral for a jubilee thanksgiving service.
The Guardian cited an unnamed Conservative MP who said that the members of the public present were likely staunchly royalist, and likely Conservative party voters.
For them to heckle a Conservative prime minister indicates how far Johnson has fallen in their estimation.
Conservative MPs also reported returning to their constituencies and facing angry voters demanding they remove Johnson. On the Monday after the service, the threshold for the vote of confidence was met.
Despite surviving, Johnson may be concerned by polling done by sites such as Conservative Home, who directly asked party members before the vote on what they think the outcome should be.
55 per cent of those polled thought Johnson should be removed, 20 per cent more than two months ago. This is from a group that overwhelmingly backed Johnson in the 2019 general election.
What comes next?
Perhaps the ultimate test of Johnson authority does not come from within his party, but from the electorate.
A test will come very soon in the form of the Wakefield by-election on June 23, with the constituency located in the traditionally Labour-voting north of England.
The constituency was won by the Conservatives in 2019 after having been held by Labour since 1932.
According to The Guardian, polling in the constituency indicates that the seat will swing back to Labour with a margin of about 20 per cent, with the Partygate scandal being cited as the primary reason.
Top image via Getty Images