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The United States has to be careful not to define the war in Ukraine that automatically puts China on the wrong side by making it a battle between democracies and autocracies, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said.
Instead, PM Lee suggested that the conflict could've been defined as one about sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and "China would not object to that, and would actually privately strongly support that", he said in a dialogue with The Wall Street Journal editorial board in New York on Apr. 1.
The transcript of PM Lee's dialogue, which took place during his visit to the U.S. two weeks ago, was released by the PMO on Apr. 10.
In his dialogue, PM Lee spoke about the state of the U.S.-China relations, the U.S.' standing in the world, security in Asia and the impact of the war on China’s thinking about Taiwan, as well as China's engagement with the region.
U.S.-China relations
PM Lee said the U.S.-China relations are "difficult enough", with "very little trust on both sides".
He noted that it is not easy to find the right level empowered to engage and reach rapprochement.
"In a situation where 80 per cent of the relationship is adversarial or conflictual, you cannot really segregate the remaining 20 per cent and say, 'Here, I would like to win-win, cooperate on pandemics and climate change', or for that matter, trade", he said.
PM Lee believes that is something which would preoccupy the U.S. administration, and also said that the U.S. will need to get their strategy and game plan right in Asia.
Hence, PM Lee suggested that the U.S. could define the problem of Ukraine differently,
"I think if we talk about sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, a lot of countries can come along. Even China would not object to that, and would actually privately strongly support that.
But if you say it is democracies versus Putin’s autocracy, I think that already is difficult. If you say democracies versus autocracies – plural – that already defines China into the wrong camp, and makes things even more difficult."
U.S. credibility
PM Lee also touched on U.S.' credibility and its standing in the world.
He said that he does not believe the strong perception in some parts of the world, including in China, that the East is rising, and the West is declining; and that the U.S. does not have a bright future.
He said that while the U.S. is preoccupied with a lot of problems with no ready solutions, it is a "very, very rash assumption" to therefore conclude that the U.S. is a country with no future.
"It is a bet which if proven wrong – which is very likely – is going to cost; cost in overly ambitious plans, cost in overly complacent assumptions, cost in being aggressive in ways which are going to cause a problem, not just to the U.S. but with the rest of the world", he said.
PM Lee further said that even if the U.S. may no longer the "hyper-power", it will still be one of the biggest economies, and one of the most "advanced, vibrant and dynamic economies and societies in the world". He also noted how the U.S. is able to "attract talent, generate new entrepreneurship, growth, ideas and reinvent" itself.
Security in Asia & China’s thinking on Taiwan has changed
On WSJ's question on how the war in Ukraine has implications for security in Asia, and whether it impacts China's thinking about Taiwan, PM Lee replied that all the countries in the region must be calculating what it means for their defence, even on questions related to nuclear capability.
PM earlier remarked during the dialogue that "some rash people" have talked about a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato)-type situation developing in Asia, but Asia is different.
PM Lee's own take is that "Ukraine does not influence Taiwan’s prospects greatly one way or the other" as Taiwan has "its own dynamics and historical frame".
On Japan and South Korea, PM Lee noted that both countries have raised the topic of developing their own nuclear capability, with former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe raising the question explicitly previously.
On the security architecture in Asia, PM Lee said that some of the Asia Pacific countries are allies of the U.S., like Japan, South Korea and Australia, while others, like Singapore, has security cooperation with the U.S. for a long time.
"The architecture we want for the region are structures which will bring the region together and make you pause a little bit longer before deciding to go for an extreme solution", he said.
China’s engagement with the region
PM Lee added that China engages the region by many economic and other schemes.
For instance, China has free trade agreements with Asean and is part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China has also applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
PM Lee noted the history of U.S.' withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and said that it could have been one opportunity for the U.S. to "have one big chip on the table" and deepen its engagement with the region.
On China's engagement in the region, PM Lee said, "We do want China to engage, but we want to engage it in such a way that it is not the only partner, and we would like the United States, we would like Europe as well".
"Every country in the region has a broad relationship with China, and would like to take advantage of the opportunities in China to do business with it, but at the same time, they would also like to retain freedom of manoeuvre and agency in a multi-polar world", PM Lee said.
You can read the full transcript of PM Lee's dialogue with the WSJ editorial board here.
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Top image from Lee Hsien Loong/Facebook.