Follow us on Telegram for the latest updates: https://t.me/mothershipsg
COP26 is already underway, and this year's climate talks are the first check-in for the world's pledges for climate action.
In 2015, world leaders reiterated their target of limiting global warming to well below 2ºC, or if possible, 1.5ºC, with the Paris Agreement.
The 192 Parties who ratified to the landmark treaty declared their goals in cutting emissions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
New emission goals for COP26
Under the Paris Agreement, countries must recommunicate their targets every five years: starting this year at COP26.
The UK COP26 Presidency has urged leaders to work towards "keeping 1.5ºC alive".
According to Climate Watch Tracker, 86 countries out of the 149 countries who submitted their updated NDCs have pledged for reduced emissions as compared to their previous NDCs.
Pledges-wise, how do some of these major emitters measure up?
Here are each country's old and new NDCs, in order of their emission contributions.
China (27 per cent of global emissions)
Previous NDCs:
- Peak emissions before 2030
- Get 20 per cent of electricity from carbon free sources
- Reduce emission intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP) by 60 to 65 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels
No new major commitments in its updated NDCs:
- Peak emissions before 2030, reach net zero by 2060
- Get 25 per cent of electricity from carbon free sources
- Reduce the emission intensity by more than 65 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels
- Raise total wind and solar power generation capacity to 1,200 gigawatts by 2030
As the biggest emitter, China is a key player in COP26 in determining the success of the climate talks.
President Xi Jinping, shared China's updated NDCs in a written statement at COP26, instead of joining the talks in-person.
One of the biggest builders of new coal plants, China announced that it will be phasing out outsourced coal power stations, as well as an immediate end to overseas coal financing earlier this year.
U.S. (15 per cent of global emissions)
Previous NDCs:
- Cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2025 from 2005 levels
Updated NDCs:
- Cut emissions by 50 per cent to 52 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels
If all countries were to follow the U.S. approach, warming could be held at 2°C, but not well below that, according to Climate Action Tracker.
The U.S., who rejoined the Paris Agreement this year under the Biden administration, is currently facing a significant challenge in passing a key budget and climate bill to reach these emissions goals.
European Union (10 per cent of global emissions)
Previous NDCs:
- Cut emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels
Updated NDCs:
- Cut emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels
India (7 per cent of global emissions)
Previous NDCs:
- Reduce carbon intensity by 33 to 35 per cent from 2005 levels
- 40 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030
On the second day of COP26, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced its updated NDCs:
- Reduce carbon intensity by 45 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels, net zero by 2070
- 50 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030
- Cut projected carbon-dioxide emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030
India's commitment to hit net-zero by 2070 is one of the most positive news at COP26 thus far.
The country's senior officials explained that India upped its commitment after observing a faster-than-expected uptake of solar power in the country.
What about Singapore?
Singapore contributes to 0.11 per cent of global emissions, but ranks 27 out of 142 countries in terms of per capita emissions.
According to Climate Action Tracker, Singapore remains "critically insufficient" in climate action.
The analysis found that Singapore is already on track to "substantially overachieve its very weak 2020 and 2030 targets", and that "if all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C."
- Reduce emission intensity by 36 per cent by 2030, from 2005 levels
- Emissions peaking around 2030
Singapore updated its target last year with more details, but without an increase in climate action:
- Reduce emission intensity by 36 per cent by 2030, from 2005 levels
- Peak emissions at 65MtCO2e around 2030, which is 28 per cent above 2014 emission levels
Are these pledges enough?
According to an UNEP report in 2019, even if all the NDCs pledged in 2015 were fulfilled, temperatures are still predicted to rise by 3.2ºC.
A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2018 also found that that countries must bring carbon dioxide emissions to “net zero” by 2050 to keep global warming to within 1.5°C.
That said, a recent research done by the University of Melbourne revealed that the new pledge made by India and China will make a sizeable difference to global warming.
The research also concluded that if the new pledges made by 195 countries were all fulfilled, the projected global warming will be below 2ºC.
While it is encouraging to see stronger targets set by some climate leaders this time round, it is essential for these nations demonstrate their ability to lay out concrete plans to meet these goals.
Top image by Karwai Tang/UK Government.