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Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned yet again that the United States and China cannot presume there will be a winner if both sides escalate their conflict.
PM Lee was speaking via video link to the Aspen Security Forum on Aug. 3, 2021.
Style of competition has changed
The Singapore leader said the U.S. had moved from engaging in healthy competition with China to the view that America "must win, one way or another".
“I don’t know whether Americans realise what a formidable adversary they would be taking on if they decide that China is an enemy,” he said.
Disastrous for everyone
Any underestimation of resolve and the retaliatory might of the other could spell big problems and consume all nations.
“Many U.S. friends and allies wish to preserve their extensive ties with both powers. No good outcome can arise from a conflict,” PM Lee also said.
“It’s vital for the U.S. and China to strive to engage each other to head off a clash which would be disastrous for both sides and the world.”
Not the first time calling for caution
PM Lee had voiced out on previous occasions against any destructive tendencies between the two biggest economies.
The collateral damage will engulf other countries caught in the middle, such as trade-reliant Singapore, which will be forced to take sides -- to everyone else's own detriment.
Political divide united against China
Having been cast as an existential external threat, an antagonistic stance on China across the political aisle in the U.S. does not bode well for a future premised on healthy competition.
"There is bipartisan consensus today on one thing, which is relations with China," PM Lee told the Aspen Security Forum regarding the cooperativeness of Democrats and Republicans on at least one subject.
"But their stance is to take a hard line. And I'm not sure that is the right consensus," he added.
Biden will continue hardened approach
PM Lee also told the forum that views had hardened in both the U.S. and China, and that the Biden administration was also constrained as a result.
“I think it will be hard to reverse the present trend toward more troubled relations, but many countries still hope that the deterioration in the relationship can be checked,” he said of the Biden's administration continuing with the current momentum.
Pros and cons to American approach now
Despite praising the Biden administration for bringing on a more “reliable and predictable” approach to foreign policy than Donald Trump, PM Lee also criticised its show of toughness in its first high-level bilateral meeting with the Chinese in Anchorage, Alaska in March 2021.
"Countries are looking for long term strategic consistency from the U.S.," and policy that is "reliable and predictable", he said.
Beijing unlikely to invade Taiwan based on its own calculations
PM Lee added that Taiwan is a particular potential flashpoint.
"I don't think they want to make a unilateral move" like invading Taiwan, he said of Beijing.
"But I think there is a danger, and the danger is of mass miscalculation."
U.S. reengaging Asia Pacific region
PM Lee also expressed appreciation for U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's comments in Singapore a week earlier.
Austin had warned against any change in the status quo of the Taiwan situation.
Here are PM Lee's fuller responses during the dialogue with moderator Evan Osnos at the Aspen Security Forum, sorted by topics:
On likelihood of U.S. and China relations deteriorating overnight
"This is not a burning issue which will explode on you tomorrow, but it is a progressive issue with very serious consequences. It comes down basically to how the U.S. sees China and how China sees the U.S."
On how China sees the region surrounding it
"Its ambitions have grown together with its ability to influence events in the region and in the world. But especially in the region, because it considers Asia as its near abroad, if you use an old Soviet era term or Russian term."
On how the U.S. sees China
"Now from America's point of view, you are seeing a competitor – one which has strengths; one which is challenging you, perhaps not challenging you ideologically, the way the Soviet Union did, but challenging you as alternative centre of influence and prosperity, and vying with you, certainly for its space in Asia. You have to decide how you are going to react."
On why the U.S. is changing its stance on China
"For a long time, the Americans are quite confident. Do not worry; we will have free competition, let the best man win. And you have no doubt, you would say quietly, the best man shall be the United States. And now you are not quite sure of that last bit."
On what are China's calculations
"But at the same time, the Chinese have looked at America and say, is this a country which is going to countenance my rise, or is this a country which wants at the very least to slow down my emergence?"
On both U.S. and China playing to domestic audience
"Because in America, if you take Pew surveys, the mood is strongly against China. And if you take China, they have domestic opinion too. The domestic opinion is extremely nationalistic and wolf warrior diplomacy is very popular in China."
On possible misunderstanding on both sides
"But the reality is neither side can put the other one down. I think there is a possible misunderstanding on both sides, because in China people say the East is rising and the West is declining. Some people believe and write about it, that America is in terminal decline. I do not think so. I tell them you look at all the science and medicine Nobel Prize winners who are ethnic Chinese. All of them were either American citizens or became American citizens, except for one, who is a Chinese citizen."
On why China will not be so easily defeated
"There is a moral in that. America is able to attract people from all over the world, (has) great talent and vibrancy and ability to reinvent itself, and (could) pick itself up again after it appears to be heading irrevocably in the wrong direction for a long time, which sometimes happens. On the other side, I do not know whether Americans realise what a formidable adversary they would be taking on, if they decide that China is an enemy. You have spent 20 years in Afghanistan. You have spent quite a long time in Iraq. These are small countries. But China is not going to disappear. This is not the Soviet Union. It is not the Potemkin village front. This is a country with enormous dynamism, energy, talent and determination to take its place in the world again."
On China's internal rhetoric
"But a lot of it is very deep pride and confidence in a population which feels that it has been downtrodden, perhaps has had the victim narrative put into them, a bit more than others might have done. But rightly, remembering where they came from, and determined to go forward, and they are not going to disappear."
"So in this situation, I would say to both: Pause, think carefully before you fast forward. It is very dangerous."
On China taking Taiwan by force
"My take - I do not think they want to make a unilateral move. But I think there is a danger, and the danger is of mass miscalculation or mishap. So you are not in a dangerous position but you can get into a dangerous position quite easily. For the Chinese, Taiwan is the mother of all core interests. I mean it is the most important national subject for them, and Taiwan independence is an absolute bright red light."
On Taiwanese changing their perception of themselves
"So you are in for quite a difficult period, especially as the Taiwanese population’s attitudes have been shifting. Two thirds of Taiwanese now think of themselves as Taiwanese and also want to maintain the status quo."
On the Goldilocks zone for Taiwan given China's ability to squeeze and relax
"If they squeeze, it turns the Taiwanese against them. If they relax, the fear that the Taiwanese will have more international space. I think that they are going to constrain Taiwan's international space as much as they can, but I do not think that they will make a unilateral unprovoked move. It is high risk. Even if it works, the victory would be decrepit, because what to do with 20 something million people on an island who are not willing citizens. A unilateral unprovoked move I think is not likely, but a miscalculation or mishap can easily lead you to a place where you do not want to be."
On Biden doing the right thing in Asia Pacific so far
"I would say that the official position this administration has taken has been a very careful one. Lloyd Austin was in Singapore recently. He was asked about this and what he said was important, although it was not very much picked up."
"I quote what he said. He said two things. One, “no one wants to see a unilateral change in the status quo with respect to Taiwan.” That means nobody is supposed to make a unilateral change and please make no mistake about that. The clause is mine, not his. Secondly, “the U.S. is committed to supporting Taiwan and its capability to defend itself in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, and the U.S.’ one China policy.” In other words, the U.S. is taking the position, which it has taken for several administrations. It is a careful statement. It is statement to both sides that unilateral acts to change the status quo, are not welcome, and what the U.S. will do is carefully spelled out in terms of the limits of where you are prepared to go."
On consensus in the U.S. on China question and how to make it work
"When it came to foreign policy and security matters, there is bipartisan consensus. If you could maintain that, that would be good. There is bipartisan consensus today on one thing, which is relations with China, but there the stance is to take a hard line. I am not sure that is the right consensus, but that is the way the mood is today and maybe it will shift. We hope it can shift in a considered and thoughtful way."
On Olympics and how other nations can approach China with Xinjiang in the backdrop
"I think it is a very delicate matter for China. They have a very challenging situation to deal with in Xinjiang because it is one of those situations where you are not sure whether which way to go. If you take it very stringently and tightly, that may result in a pushback. If you ease up too much, that may result in situation bursting forth elsewhere. And from an external point of view, if you take a view that you want to express moral approval or disapproval, then you have to try and make a calculation whether that will make a difference to your objective, and will that make things better or worse in China?"
"It is always delicate for a country to be publicly expressed disapproval of and to accept that and say yes, I will learn and do better. I think no country in the world does that. So the question is how you are able to continue to operate with them and yet at the same time, you have your views, they have their views, and without compromising your position, you maintain your dignity but you do the business, which is necessary. You have had to do that in many countries on many occasions; your diplomats understand this problem."
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