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The Taliban has retaken Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, with barely any shots fired.
The situation on the ground, in a country that hasn't known real peace for decades, saw American efforts in the last 20 years to remake Afghan society in its own image fall apart in a matter of hours.
But not that this outcome was not imagined or talked about before.
Lee Kuan Yew interview in 2009
In a wide-ranging, almost hour-long sit-down studio interview with Charlie Rose in October 2009, the first prime minister of Singapore had already talked about how American intervention in Afghanistan will come to naught.
On hindsight, Lee's prescient and far-sighted views on foreign policy has proved incisive and spot on yet again, some 12 years after he made his comments on what he thinks about the United States' approach to the Middle East, and making clear he was not a believer in having one nation conduct nation-building activities in another.
Lee's remarks on Afghanistan appear from the 34min 12sec mark in the YouTube video below, and go on for about 6 minutes in his exchange with Rose:
The original interview can be viewed here in high-definition.
Bootleg copies of the interview are also prevalent on YouTube, such as this one here.
What Lee said about Afghanistan
Lee, who was Minister Mentor at that time when he spoke to Rose, was already sceptical that the U.S. can stay the course in Afghanistan for the long haul.
Lee more or less said even the Russians could not do it previously.
When Rose insisted that the U.S. "has to stand for something and it has to show it’s prepared to stay", Lee replied curtly: "No."
As Lee saw it, Afghanistan was a country that had been facing internal strife for decades, as warlords and different factions have been vying for land and power.
He also made it clear that he would not be drawn into any conversation that would have him articulate a solution for the Americans' Middle East problem.
Lee asked rhetorically: "How on earth are you going to put these little bits together?"
He added: "It’s not possible."
Candid moment
When probed further to provide his take on how the Middle East can solve its problems, Lee laughed, almost exasperated, and said: "You can't solve all the problems in the world."
This moment occurred at the 37min 33sec mark in the video.
Earlier interview in 2008
Lee's views on Afghanistan were also made known in earlier interviews, such as one with with Arnaud de Borchgrave of UPI on Feb. 2, 2008 at the Istana.
In this instance, Lee was more candid and gave a partial solution to the Afghanistan problem.
He proposed for the warlords in the country to sort it out when a power vacuum was established, but to not let it fall back into a Taliban state.
This could be achieved with the U.S. looming large in the background and threatening intervention and regime change if things took a turn for the draconian in Afghanistan.
He also said no country can undertake nation-building in another country.
Question: Can I perhaps conclude, sir, by asking you the same question that I asked you when I was last here in 2001 about what concerned you most about the next 10 years, whether it's Al-Qaeda, whether it's the Islamist bomb, whether it's China, India? How have your views evolve since 2001?
Lee Kuan Yew: I think my worry is first whether America will go through this rough patch without losing heart and losing the will to see this problem through. Afghanistan was not of your choosing and if you've stuck in Afghanistan, not attempt it so much, just pacify it and let the warlords sort it out in a such a way that you do not try to create a new Taliban state, you cannot do that. The British tried it and they didn't succeed. Nobody has succeeded. In Iraq, you should have gone in and just, you know, just appoint the next man and finish with it and if you behave like Saddam, I'll come back. That's enough. But to remake societies is beyond the capacity of any nation. But having gone in, if you lose heart and say, look, I can imagine an America that says, to hell with it all. Europeans not helping, Japanese half-hearted, opposition is blocking this, that, tokenism from all the others. Look, we just protect ourselves.
Here is a transcript of Lee Kuan Yew's take on Afghanistan in an interview with Charlie Rose in 2009:
Charlie Rose: When you look at the U.S. and its relationship and its concern about oil and its politics in the Middle East, do you think it’s a distraction? You think that...
Lee Kuan Yew: No, I’m not saying the Middle East is a distraction. I think trying to make a country out of Afghanistan is a distraction. There was no country for the last 30, 40 years. There’s just been fighting each other since the last king was chased out.
Charlie Rose: Right.
Lee Kuan Yew: How on earth are you going to put these little bits together? It’s not possible.
Charlie Rose: So, therefore, you do what?
Lee Kuan Yew: I’m not an expert, but in my simple mind it strikes me that you won in Afghanistan not because you fought the Taliban, but because you got the Northern Alliance (referring to the Afghan Northern Alliance) to fight them, and you provided the Northern Alliance with intelligence and the capabilities to bomb them and target them. And they captured the south.
Charlie Rose: Yes, but they have governance problems there, too.
Lee Kuan Yew: That’s all right. But that’s their problem. Why do you want to make it your problem?
Charlie Rose: So what do you do? Would you pull all the troops out and let whatever happens to Afghanistan, happen to Afghanistan? It’s not that threatening to the United States, is that the argument?
Lee Kuan Yew: I don’t know about that, because I think it cannot be more difficult for the United States to have their troops stuck there. The Russians are a brutal, ruthless lot of army people. 120,000 of them were there, but they had to leave.
Charlie Rose: And we helped that because we supported the Mujahideen. The Mujahideen had a lot of support from around the world who wanted to see the Soviet Union take it.
Lee Kuan Yew: But whether or not the Soviets help them to get the Americans out, I think the Americans and the NATO troops — the NATO members are very sceptical of the outcome.
Charlie Rose: Even to the point of not wanting to send their troops to certain kinds of combat areas.
Lee Kuan Yew: Quite right. Yes, of course, because then you get shot for nothing.
Charlie Rose: But those who argue if Afghanistan is abandoned. First of all, the world will say or people will say, look, you left Afghanistan once before after the Soviets left, and now you’re leaving again. The United States has to stand for something and it has to show it’s prepared to stay. You don’t buy that at all?
Lee Kuan Yew: No.
Charlie Rose: You must have a wonderful conversation with your friend Henry Kissinger then?
Lee Kuan Yew: No, no.
Charlie Rose: Where do you and Henry Kissinger differ on the look or view of the U.S. role in the world?
Lee Kuan Yew: I don’t think we have any difference.
Charlie Rose: Is that right? How would you define it then?
Lee Kuan Yew: I think the U.S. can be a benign stabiliser of the world order. Without the U.S., East Asia would never have grown. You brought peace and technology, trade and investments and East Asia flourished.
Charlie Rose: That's clear that's happened to East Asia, you talk about Singapore and South Korea. How do we do that in the Middle East? How do you do that when we have that kind of conflicts that's taking place?
Lee Kuan Yew: [Laughs] You can't solve all the problems in the world.
Charlie Rose: Ah.
Lee Kuan Yew: Some problems just got to be resolved by...
Charlie Rose: So what are your priorities?
Lee Kuan Yew: For Singapore?
Charlie Rose: For United States.
Lee Kuan Yew: [Holds head in both hands] I cannot think... I'm not an American, I do not calculate in American terms. I calculate what Americans are likely to do in relation to what will happen to me.
Charlie Rose: That's why they listen to you.
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Top photos via Charlie Rose