The number of Covid-19 deaths could hit 2.3 million before 2020 is over.
The morbid milestone of 1 million deaths was reached 10 months after the pandemic started.
The latest projection is according to an estimate by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, with consensus from health researchers.
The reason for the sharp rise is due to the northern hemisphere entering winter and the flu season, and a current possible severe undercounting of Covid-19 cases worldwide.
700 million people possibly infected with Covid-19
On Oct. 5, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned of a difficult period ahead.
The organisation said its “best estimates” indicated that roughly one in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by the virus that causes Covid-19.
This puts the real infection figure at 700 million, or more than 20 times the number of confirmed cases currently.
At present, the number of reported Covid-19 cases worldwide is over 35 million.
Why deaths can surge in next few months
The number of deaths could go up sharply as countries around the world are not strictly following control measures in a coordinated and systematic fashion.
This view was put forth by Janet Hatcher Roberts, co-director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Knowledge Translation and Health Technology Assessment in Health Equity.
Currently, most countries in Europe and North America are seeing resurgences in case numbers when they loosen suppression measures.
Moreover, patterns in many low- to middle-income countries have been harder to track all along because of their low levels of testing.
Respiratory infections during cold weather
Winter conditions have been associated with an increase in rates of respiratory infections in temperate countries.
This was the result of people spending more time in crowded indoor areas, with the virus potentially surviving longer in cooler conditions, and also exposure to cold weather lowering defences against infection.
Flu season could be an added complication as it would be difficult to differentiate between influenza and Covid-19 symptoms.
Testing, treatment, contact tracing, and quarantine and isolation, remain vital.
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