Japan welcomed a new prime minister on Sep. 16, 2020.
This was after Shinzo Abe's surprise resignation at the end of August.
Suga, the new prime minister of Japan.
Yoshihide Suga, who was formerly Abe's closest aide and the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, was elected by the Diet as Abe's successor.
In his campaign, he promised continuity, saying that he will build on "Abenomics", one of the legacies left behind by his predecessor.
Abe's trend-breaking 8-year run as PM
As the longest-serving prime minister of Japan, having stayed the course for eight years, Abe managed to buck a trend of short-lived premierships.
While Abe became prime minister for the first time in 2006, he stepped down shortly in 2007 due to ulcerative collitis.
He ran again in 2012, and stayed in power for nearly eight years before stepping down last month.
With the exception of Abe and Junichiro Koizumi, no prime minister in Japan has managed to stay in office longer than two years in the last 20 years since 2000.
9 PMs in last 20 years
With nine different prime ministers in the last two decades since Abe held the political office twice, Japan has seen their prime ministers change 10 times in 20 years.
How other Asian countries fare
In South Korea, premierships have typically lasted five years each on average in the last couple of decades, with the exception of former president Park Geun Hye, who was impeached in 2017 after four years in power.
Singapore had three prime ministers since independence, and saw two different PMs in the last two decades.
Compared to its other Asian counterparts, Japan happens to be somewhat an anomaly, with some of its prime ministers resigning after less than a year in power.
Popularity plays a part
Few prime ministers have lasted long in the top political seat of Japan since post-WWII.
One of the shortest terms lasted two months, by the late Tsutomu Hata in 1994.
While there are some theories, no consensus has been reached on why Japan's premierships are largely short-lived.
Popularity polls a gauge on whether it is time to go
According to The Atlantic, Japan's political culture is largely influenced by existential popular accountability, where top politicians often feel compelled to resign if popular opinion turns against them.
Domestic media outlets in Japan such as Kyodo, NHK and Mainichi regularly perform opinion polls among readers, which could contribute to the awareness of how popular a political party or personality is.
Before Abe, various factors could trigger a prime minister's resignation -- possibly even what they wear, after former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama was attacked for making a fashion faux pas, according to The Atlantic.
Donning a multi-coloured shirt, a fashion critic lambasted his fashion choice in a public magazine, warning the country that the clownish attire represented what poll numbers already reflected -- that Hatoyama was out of touch.
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Hatoyama's premiership lasted less than a year, resigning after 266 days.
While Abe's resignation is mainly tied to his health issues, his popularity had dipped considerably.
His approval ratings fell alarmingly low in May 2020, according to polls by NHK and Mainichi, reported Japan Times.
While Abe's popularity remained low right before his resignation, public support poured in after his resignation, for his record-setting run as the longest-serving prime minister of Japan and Suga's promise of continuity as his successor.
The approval rating for Suga's Cabinet stands at 66.4 per cent according to a poll by Kyodo, one of the highest among prime ministers taking office since 2000.
The culture of resignation possibly due to the lack of popularity may have been reinforced by each resignation by the politicians' predecessors, creating an assumption that this may be how Japan's political system works.
Factionalism and family
While Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has largely dominated the political scene with few exceptions in the last two decades.
Within the LDP exists various internal factions, which have been around since the beginning days of the LDP in 1955.
Abe's decorated political lineage
According to research by Columbia University, many politicians in the LDP belong to an internal faction, as faction leaders are able to provide resources and connections for their followers, which would help them in taking care of their constituents.
There are seven factions in the LDP, with the largest faction led by Hiroyuki Hosoda, a former Chief Cabinet Secretary.
Abe also belonged to this faction, which was once led by his late father, Shintaro Abe, who was foreign minister from 1982 to 1986.
While the long-serving Abe has seen his popularity fluctuate across the years, he remained largely unchallenged within the LDP due to his heavy influence in the party.
Coming from political "royalty", Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi was the former prime minister of Japan, and his father was also a political heavyweight.
Abe's political backing and influence managed to overcome internal differences, possibly resulting in a much longer-lasting premiership than most.
Koizumi a third-gen politician
Junichiro Koizumi, another former prime minister who served from 2001 to 2006, was also a third-generation politician. He is also part of the same faction as Abe.
His son, Shinjiro Koizumi, the current environment minister of Japan, has been earmarked as a future prime minister by political observers across Japan, according to Financial Times.
Political seat as inheritance
Of Japan’s 30 prime ministers since WWII, only three have had no political family background.
Some 45 per cent of MPs in Japan inherited their seats from their fathers up until the 1990s, Australian National University research found, reported Sydney Morning Herald.
Can Suga change Japan's politics?
The current Prime Minister Suga can be considered a political anomaly in Japan, as he does not belong to any faction.
In 1996, Suga was elected to the lower house of parliament at the relatively mature age of 47.
For comparison, Abe was elected to parliament at 29.
Suga used to be a blue-collar worker, notably a strawberry farmer at one point.
However, despite being factionless, five out of seven LDP factions have been fighting to support him as the new prime minister, with them backing him in the recent internal election.
Suga maintained that he would not reward supportive factions with Cabinet posts, in an interview with Asahi Shimbun during the internal election in early September.
It remains a question whether Suga will be able to retain his power in the long run, or if Japan's premierships will revert to pre-Abe days, with short-lived seasons.
Much of it may depend on Suga's performance in the upcoming national election that must be called by September 2021.
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