1 in 3 chance of new global pandemic in next 20 years: Ong Ye Kung

There's a one in three chance that a new global pandemic will emerge within the next two decades, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung.

He was speaking at an event at the Temasek Shophouse on Dec. 1, 2025.

Ong also unveiled a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model and platform that analyses "emerging communicable disease threats", dubbed PathGen.

He emphasised the need to be vigilant in the face of future threats and pandemic diseases.

Stay focused

During Covid-19, policymakers and doctors worldwide worked together to tackle the disease. 

This global cooperation was "good news", he said, adding that the work done back then will ensure better preparedness for the next global pandemic.

But such a pandemic has a 2 per cent chance of occurring every year.

This translates to a one in three chance in the next 20 years.

This will require continued focus, barring which we may "regret our inability" to do so, he said.

"Memories of the pandemic have started to fade. People want to put the episode behind them and worry about other problems in life.

The spread of infectious diseases has disappeared from media headlines, and governments have shifted their priorities."

As the sense of vigilance continues to wane around the world, Singapore must buck the trend and "anticipate and work on problems before they explode", Ong emphasised.

Keeping priorities straight

What does such a "culture of vigilance" look like during peacetime?

Ong gave the example of the SG Arrival Card, an initiative that remains in place today as it can be "updated at very short notice depending on external disease threats".

Singapore also conducts island-wide wastewater testing, to quickly step up testing in the event that any pathogens of interest are detected.

In addition, Singapore continues to partner with foreign agencies and the private sector in such pandemic preparedness initiatives.

He noted that private sector partnership, in particular, is "essential and valuable".

"Look at all our medical countermeasures, from vaccines, therapeutics, masks and test kits, they are developed and produced by the private sector," he said.

Top photo from GovInsider and Duke-NUS Medical School.