Incoming Prime Minister Lawrence Wong revealed his first cabinet on May 13, a lineup with little changes and no major portfolios changing hands.

And as I was parsing through the information, a thought occurred: Wong had assembled the governmental equivalent of an IKEA cabinet.

An IKEA cabinet (when assembled properly) is good and sturdy enough to get the job done, but it’s not an heirloom, it won’t be passed down the generations.

Lawrence Wong’s first cabinet has a similar feel, it's functional, it has a clear purpose that can be explained, but it's not going to last long… sort of.

Delayed acceleration

The thing to realise about the cabinet is there’s a matter of timing.

This handover takes place about 18 months from when an election must be called, and we might see an election significantly sooner.

Perhaps if the timing had worked out the way the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had wanted, then by this point, PM Lee's successor would have had a year or two of experience as Prime Minister, and might have used the occasion as a final cabinet reshuffle to signal intent going into the general election.

But PM Lee's decision to step down by his 70th birthday was famously delayed by the pandemic, and Wong’s runway to become PM was shorter than expected, due to when he was selected.

This is an odd situation where his runway is both accelerated and delayed; Wong may not have the time in office he might otherwise have expected, but also does not have much time left before calling for fresh elections.

Little upheaval

As Wong explained in his press conference, his decision on the cabinet came naturally; the various ministries have a bevy of priorities that they are seeking to settle before the election, when, presumably, there will be a renewal of priorities.

“All the ministers already have a full plate of work to see through. And some have also just rolled out new programs in their ministries.

So to avoid any disruptions I have decided to keep them in their present roles until the end of the term”

Changing ministers at this point would have left the ministries and ministers precious little time to do anything before the upheaval of a new government.

And if the PAP retains power (presumably they will), individual ministers might, for whatever reason, not return to government.

Some might choose retirement, others might not get re-elected, a consideration that Wong alluded to in his Economist interview.

While we might expect the government to be returned, almost no individual MP or minister has a cast-iron guarantee of being re-elected.

Then why have a reshuffle at all?

It’s a bit of a technicality. When PM Lee steps down, his ministers step down too, as they serve at his discretion.

As Wong has decided to keep them on, there is a need for the president to reapprove everyone in the cabinet, and so that’s what’s going to happen.

Weirdly, it's that same justification why we might expect a more thorough reshuffle after the general election.

You’re going to have to swear in everyone again, maybe it’s time to shake things up.

But after the election, anyone who gets selected for cabinet office might reasonably expect a few years to make their mark in a new ministry, and then the call for change over continuity becomes clearer.

And as Wong says, come the next election, some current ministers might choose to step down from cabinet, if not from parliament.

Some might choose to actually retire, something the PM has reminded us he is not going to do.

At the same time, only the PAP knows who’s going to stand for election.

Sure, most of the new intake of parliamentarians will go through the conventional pathway of Parliamentary Secretary to Minister of State.

@mothershipsg how to be a minister in singapore? #singapore #tiktoksg #sgnews ♬ original sound - Mothership

But you might get another situation like Manpower Minister Tan See Leng, an experienced private sector leader who makes their way to parliament, and can take up heavy ministerial responsibilities immediately.

So as I said, the cabinet functions, for the moment. But it will likely not be "passed on".

Experienced hands

As it stands, there are some minor touch-ups to be done. Singapore usually, and uniquely, has two deputy prime ministers, and with Wong moving to PM, there was a need to replace him.

I will admit surprise to hear Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong had been named, a sentiment that was shared by at least a handful of people I knew.

Gan is such an evergreen figure, I had failed to pay attention to just how experienced he was.

He’s older than DPM Heng (only by two years!), he’s been in cabinet longer, since 2008, and he’s been an MP significantly longer, since 2001.

And he’s also been in important ministries at important times.

Gan was manpower minister during the Global Financial Crisis, and was health minister during the first half of the Covid pandemic.

Looking into it, Gan's promotion to DPM made sense, with him being one of the most senior ministers still present in cabinet.

Added to this the fact that he has a good working relationship with Wong, it makes sense for Wong to enter the new role with a trusted partner as deputy.

@mothershipsg lawrence wong 🤝 gan kim yong #tiktoksg #sgnews #singapore ♬ original sound - Mothership

Both men co-chaired the Covid-19 multi-ministry taskforce, something that Wong described as a "baptism of fire".

While reading up on the background, I couldn't help but recall 2000's era TV show "The West Wing", when the fictional president of the United States was giving advice to a subordinate about taking up a new role in a moment of crisis, he asked the man, “Do you have a best friend?”

“Yes sir.”

“Is he smarter than you? Do you trust him with your life?”

“Yes sir.”

“He’s your chief of staff.”

Taking up a new job isn’t quite a crisis, but it is a delicate moment. Best to get someone you know how to work with.

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Top image via Heng Swee Keat/Facebook