'Simplistic' to argue US action in Venezuela sets precedent for China on Taiwan: Bilahari

In the wake of the U.S. capture of Venezuela president Nicolás Maduro, some have argued that a precedent has been set for China to take action against Taiwan, former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan wrote in a Jan. 5 Facebook post.

However, he characterised such an argument as "simplistic", explaining that what the U.S. did in Venezuela does not change China's strategic calculations on Taiwan.

Probability of success more vital consideration than precedent

Making his case, Bilahari argued that what the U.S. did in Venezuela may be used by China to justify action against Taiwan rhetorically, but will not be factored into its "actual strategic calculations".

Much more important to Beijing than precedent would be the actual probability of success, since its leaders would not risk a botched raid that would affect its legitimacy, the former diplomat added.

This probability will be assessed based on the People Liberation Army's operational capability, which has not fought in a war since 1979, Bilahari commented.

In comparison, the U.S. military has been in continual combat since the Second World War, which ended in 1945.

"An operation against Taiwan will be more complex," the former permanent secretary for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore wrote.

Another factor is the possibility of external intervention by countries like the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Australia, which makes a raid on Taiwan an "even bigger gamble".

China needs no precedent

Bilahari, 71, also pointed out that China has never "eschewed" taking military action against Taiwan, and needs no precedent "except its own one China principle".

He also compared Venezuela and Taiwan, stating that the differences between the two will lead to different global reactions.

While U.S. action against Venezuela will not lead to an "effective response from any country", the same cannot be said if China takes similar action against Taiwan.

"Venezuela is a narco-state and Taiwan is a respectable polity that plays a crucial role in the global economy," Bilahari wrote.

"China cannot count on action against Taiwan not eliciting any tangible response and with the Chinese economy in its current fragile state, this adds to Beijing’s calculus of risk," he added.

"In short, the precedent argument is only very marginally valid, if at all," Bilahari concluded.

Foreign policy of theology and practical diplomacy

In the Jan. 5 post, Bilahari referenced first Foreign Affairs Minister S. Rajaratnam's distinction between the "foreign policy of theology" and "practical diplomacy" in the "jungle world".

Should China take into account the U.S. action in its decision over Taiwan, it would be in the "theology" to justify its own actions, he wrote.

Rajaratnam had mentioned this concept in a 1988 lecture, in which he advised the audience not to confuse the rhetoric, or the "theology of a nation's foreign policy", with its practice.

Bilahari first alluded to Rajaratnam's conceptual distinction in a Jan. 4 post, in which he posited that only the U.S. military could pull off a raid like it had in Venezuela, but the legality of the move will be debated for years to come.

Borrowing Rajaratnam's concept, he commented that debate over its legality belonged to the realm of the "foreign policy of theology", and the larger strategic question was whether the military action had enhanced or diminished overall U.S. deterrence globally.

Expressions of concerns over legality does not negate the fact that the foreign policy of the world is still "very largely a jungle".

"Any action that enhances the credibility of U.S. deterrence in the jungle world is not against our interests," the former diplomat wrote.

He also noted that all countries need both foreign policies, and it was "suicidal" for small countries to confuse them.

"We may regret the reality of the jungle world but cannot afford to ignore it by focusing only on theology," Bilahari wrote on Jan. 4.

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Top image via Reuters