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Conservative parties likely to form next German govt but far-right AfD sees surge in support
The election will significantly change European politics.
February 24, 2025, 04:38 PM
The results from the 2025 Bundestag elections are in.
Germany's mainstream conservative coalition, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) have won a plurality of the vote.
Their leader, Friedrich Merz, is set to become the next German chancellor (equivalent to Singapore's prime minister).
Olaf Scholz, who was chancellor since 2021, suffered a bitter defeat. His centre-left party, the Social Democrats, recorded its worst result ever in a federal election.
AfD support
Meanwhile, Germany's far-right party, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), secured a record second-place result with 20 per cent of the overall vote share.
When the leader of the AfD, Alice Weidel, took the stage on Feb. 23 following the release of the election results, the crowd began to chant: "Alice für Deutschland! Alice für Deutschland!" ("Alice for Germany!")
According to Politico, the phrase is a play on words echoing a mantra once chanted by Adolf Hitler's Sturmabteilung Stormtroopers: "Alles für Deutschland!" ("Everything for Germany!")
AfD's ascendance within German politics marks, in turn, the comeback of the once taboo political far-right.
The far-right make their comeback, but less than expected
Alice Weidel cuts a strange figure for a far-right politician.
Openly gay, and living in Switzerland with her Sri Lankan partner, as well as having a background in international finance, she nevertheless is the leader of a party officially suspected of right-wing extremism.
As the BBC reported in 2024, there are significant blocs within the party that believe that anyone with a migrant heritage is not properly German.
Some within the party have even called for Germany to end its tradition of remembering and atoning for the Nazi era, calling the Holocaust memorial a "monument of shame".
Despite its record success, AfD had actually initially been projected to earn a larger share of the vote, leading to the mood at AfD's headquarters being somewhat subdued.
As the BBC reported, some in the party were expecting a much higher share of the vote, with some polls predicting a 34 per cent slice of the pie.
America expresses support for AfD
AfD's success comes after signals of support provided by the world's richest man Elon Musk and United States (U.S.) Vice President JD Vance.
Vance, during his speech at the Munich Security Conference, covertly indicated support for AfD by making reference to something known as the "firewall" in German politics.
For the longest time in post-war German politics, there existed something known as the "firewall".
This firewall referred to a consensus amongst German political parties, since the end of World War II, that the far-right must never be allowed into government.
Known in German as the "Brandmauer", it effectively blockaded the far-right from collaborating with German parties.
When Friedrich Merz, whose party was buoyed to first place in the 2025 elections, forwarded a stringent anti-immigration motion supported by AfD earlier this year, Chancellor Olaf Scholz accused him of breaking this long-established firewall.
AfD's rise further signals the erosion of this firewall.
"The firewall has fallen!" Weidel jubilantly declared in a post made to X after the election results, Politico reported.
Elon Musk has made various posts on X (formerly Twitter) explicitly supporting AfD in the lead-up to the elections.
What's next?
According to Reuters, this is the first time since World War 2 that a far-right party in Germany has come in second in a national election.
The election will have an "immeasurable impact" on how Europe reacts to Donald Trump's apparent rapprochement with Russia over Ukraine, given AfD's pro-Russia stance.
Merz's anti-migration policies and stances are liable to run up against the EU's longstanding Schengen Agreement on freedom of movement.
As The New Statesman notes, this plays into AfD's agenda as it seeks to remove Germany from the EU.
Top photo from AfD/X, Friedrich Merz/Facebook & Canva.
