PM Wong says search for next finance minister still 'work in progress'. Here's a possible timeline.

The Cabinet reshuffle announcement on Jul. 22 saw promotions, a name change, and even the return of a familiar face.

But one thing remained unchanged: PM Wong is still Minister for Finance.

This observation prompted a reporter to ask the Prime Minister why he chose to continue helming the finance portfolio despite his "heavy workload".

PM Wong's response was only that he's "always looking to find someone who will be ready to be finance minister" and that the search is still a "work in progress".

When will he hand over the reins to the finance ministry? A look back at his predecessors offers clues.

Looking at past finance ministers

Singapore has had eight Ministers for Finance before PM Wong assumed the mantle, with tenures ranging from slightly over a year (Tony Tan) to just under 17 years (Richard Hu).

But tenures of 10 years and above are not the norm.

Aside from Richard Hu, only one other finance minister crossed the 10-year mark — Hon Sui Sen (slightly over 13 years).

Excluding Hu and Hon, the average tenure of the remaining six finance ministers is slightly over five years.

If we were to focus only on the last three finance ministers before PM Wong (Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong, President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and former Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat), the average tenure between them was about six and a half years.

PM Wong himself has been serving as finance minister for slightly over five years. Taking reference from history, could we be seeing a successor soon? Perhaps even late next year or early 2028?

Taking reference from SM Lee's tenure

There's only one other Prime Minister who also held the role of Minister for Finance in Singapore's history, and that is Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

SM Lee became the finance minister in November 2001.

Three years later, in August 2004, he took on the role of Prime Minister.

He served in both capacities for nearly three and a half years until December 2007 when he passed the finance portfolio to now-President Tharman.

Similarly, PM Wong held the role of finance minister for exactly three years before he became Prime Minister in May 2024.

He has been juggling both roles for more than two years now. If he were to follow SM Lee's trajectory, again it would indicate the possibility of a new Minister for Finance as soon as end 2027.

Who's delivering the Budget?

Analysing tenures alone can only get us this far. Another important clue lies in Parliament House, specifically the person delivering the Budget.

Contrary to popular belief, the Minister for Finance does not deliver the Budget all the time.

History shows us that the gargantuan task of preparing and delivering the Budget sometimes fell to junior ministers, for the purpose of succession preparation.

Former finance minister Hon Sui Sen (who served for a staggering total of 13 years) delegated his final two Budgets to Tony Tan, the first in March 1982 and then in March 1983.

Seven months later, in October 1983, Tan took on the top job at the Ministry of Finance.

SM Lee also delegated his final Budget in February 2007 to his successor Tharman, who was then Second Minister for Finance.

10 months later, Tharman took over from SM Lee as Minister for Finance.

Of course this is not a foolproof method of determining succession. The vast majority of finance ministers in Singapore's history delivered the Budget themselves without delegating to a successor.

But it is a good indicator, taken in tandem with other clues, of PM Wong's succession plans for the all-important finance portfolio.

All in all, we will definitely be keeping our eyes peeled come February next year.

Another second minister

Perhaps another clue lies in PM Wong's decision to add another second minister to the Ministry of Finance.

The reshuffle will see Jeffrey Siow serve as Second Minister for Finance, alongside Indranee Rajah.

PM Wong said at the press conference that one might "look at the tea leaves" and speculate whether a second minister could be in the pipeline to take over.

"The reality is these are all roles and responsibilities where we want to expose office-holders," he said. "We want to assess their suitability, and over time we hope that some of them will be in a position to take over.”

"I am always doing that for different ministries and certainly whether it is MHA, MOF or others, I will work with the team, assess their suitability, assess their readiness, and in due course, if they are ready, some of them may well take over to lead the ministry."