The biggest election of 2025? How the Catholic Church chooses a new Pope.

With the passing of Pope Francis, Catholics of the world mourn the passing of their spiritual leader.

But as one Pope passes, another must be chosen to take his place.

We spoke to NUS theologian Michel Chambon about the process of finding the next Pope, the prospects, and how Pope Francis continues to influence the Church after his death.

Conclave

Popes are elected by their peers, usually after the incumbent pope dies or occasionally resigns, and that electoral process is known as a conclave.

The conclave is a multiweek process that starts in the days after the death or resignation of the previous Pope.

In the case of Francis, whose funeral is due to be held in Vatican City in Rome on Apr. 26, the cardinals of the Catholic Church will be called upon to gather in Rome.

Cardinals are the most senior clergymen of the Church, and while the comparison is not perfect, you might think of them as both priests and senior government officials.

Chambon estimates that there are about 200 cardinals in the world at present, but only those aged 80 or younger will be cardinal electors and actually vote for the new Pope.

Many of the current crop of cardinals were appointed by the late Francis and, in the short term, will represent the most pronounced final expression of his impact on the Church.

They will be tasked with finding a leader of the Church from amongst their number, with the decision affecting the spiritual and political direction of the Church.

But what are the considerations of the conclaves?

The two keys

At first, one might assume that the question meant to be answered by the gathering is a purely religious one.

But Chambon notes that the Pope is what he described as a "universal sovereign", and in Catholic theology, he has political duties "towards the entire humankind".

These duties are represented in the iconography of the papal office by the symbol of the crossed keys, one in silver and one in gold.

The keys represent the dual areas of responsibility of the Pope, "politics and religion, spiritual and temporal".

It is from these keys that the word "conclave" comes from, from the Latin "cum clave", with the keys.

Cardinal considerations

Gathered cardinals will, of course, discuss the spiritual and religious needs and direction of the Catholic Church.

But they will also consider the political, and oftentimes geopolitical needs, of the Church and the flock.

Chambon gives the example of Pope John Paul II, now Saint John Paul II, a priest from Soviet Poland, whose election presented a real challenge to the Soviet system.

However, they will also consider other pragmatic aspects, such as how long they expect the next Pope to reign.

If the Church is in a period of transition, an older pope might be favoured in order to generate a quicker transition a few years down the line.

But it might avail itself of some of the younger candidates; Chambon notes there are several relatively younger cardinals, 'only' in their 50s or 60s.

They might thus hope to give the new Pope more time and leeway to enact his policy and religious goals.

John Paul II was notably Pope for nearly three decades, from the late 70s to the turn of the millennium.

Locked in, with the keys

The gathered cardinals will remain in Rome for the next two to three weeks and will meet with each other to discuss these considerations.

Before their participation, the cardinals are sworn to absolute secrecy, so the actual happenings within the conclave are always shrouded in secrecy.

However, Chambon notes that the cardinals, while religious leaders, are also very human, and stories have emerged after conclaves about the considerations and politicking that go on during the discussion.

Some of these considerations have inspired seminal pieces of cinema, and I know we're thinking of the same movie: "Angels and Demons" starring Tom Hanks.

However, after the two or three-week period, only the cardinals under 80 will remain for the next two to three days to vote in the Sistine Chapel.

The cardinals vote two to three times a day, up to a maximum of four, and a pope is elected when a single candidate has secured the support of two-thirds of the electors.

This voting process is where the famous image of white smoke emanating from a small chimney above the chapel comes from, with white smoke indicating that a decision has been made.

Will there be a first Asian pope?

Few people may be aware that the first pope, St Peter, comes from...let's just say he comes from a part of the Middle East that is technically Asia.

Chambon spoke about the influence of the Asian Church, potential candidates, and the concerns that will drive its considerations.

Catholics are a minority in Asia, forming the majority in only a few countries, but still number in the hundreds of millions.

Southeast Asia reflects this, with many Catholics scattered throughout the region,  and forms a majority in two countries, the Philippines and Timor Leste.

For the upcoming papal conclave, we will see a larger-than-usual Southeast Asian contingent.

Singapore, Malaysia, and Timor Leste have an eligible cardinal elector for the first time, and Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand each send at least one cardinal.

The Philippines has at least three, and one happens to be one of the front runners in the conclave… sort of.

Candidates

When asked about who might be the next Pope, Chambon was sanguine.

"In Italy, there is a famous thing stating that a Cardinal who enters the Conclave as a pope leaves the conclave a cardinal."

In other words: predictions are almost always wrong.

But already, lists of potential candidates are circulating like crazy, and in truth, they had been even before Francis's death.

One name of note is the Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

The 67-year-old Tagle, according to Chambon, is a highly appreciated theologian known for his ability to introduce Catholic "thought and thinking in fairly accessible terms".

Tagle was archbishop of Manila before going to Rome to oversee the humanitarian arm of the Catholic Church, Caritas.

However, Chambon noted that Tagle had some shadows dogging him regarding how he ran some of the organisations he oversaw, leading to "a number of doubts about his capacity to face (the) most challenging issues inside the church".

Inequality

When asked what the impact of a possible Asian pope might mean for Asia, Chambon noted that the Church in Asia faced different challenges from the rest of the world.

In Asia, the Church operates in an environment with much more religious diversity, where other world religions were in the majority, and Catholicism is in the minority.

However, that also allowed it to face issues such as inequality in a very different way than it otherwise has in other parts of the world.

Chambon referred to stories leaking out of the conclave despite vows of secrecy, saying that Asian cardinals were rumoured to have played a significant part in identifying Francis as a good fit for the world that the Church faced 12 years ago.

Chambon felt that those "priorities were not gone today in Southeast Asia".

Interreligious engagement

Francis had helped engagement in a world where Catholicism was one religion of several, existing in an increasingly secular world.

Asian cardinals would try to again advocate for positive engagement with other religions, as Francis had in his tenure, famously going to Iraq and meeting Muslim leaders there, as well as seeking rapprochement with the orthodox churches of Eastern Europe and with the state-controlled Church in mainland China.

But Asia is also a place where the Church grappled with inequality, with its members ranging from the very poor to the very rich.

The Church had been very active over the past century trying to bridge such gaps, Chambon said, noting, "Catholic schools and hospitals are very impressive across the region when you know that Catholics are just a very tiny minority".

"And so we saw with Pope Francis, a pope that was very vocal about inequalities around the world today, and how we need to consider that.

I don't think that Asian Cardinals have changed on that front".

Top image via AFP