With 3 ministers in East Coast, who might the PAP uproot for GE2025?

Following the release of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) report, change came to both Marine Parade and East Coast GRCs. The report explains it like so:

"...the Committee recommended merging the remaining polling districts of Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC with the adjacent polling districts from East Coast GRC, comprising the Loyang and Flora estates, to form a new 4-MP Pasir Ris-Changi GRC."

So East Coast GRC lost a few polling districts. But that wasn't all.

"Consequentially, the Committee recommended that East Coast GRC take in adjacent polling districts from Marine Parade GRC, comprising the Chai Chee HDB estates and the Siglap private estates, and remain as a 5-MP GRC."

On a numbers level, it appears as though nothing has changed. East Coast was a GRC with five Members of Parliament (MP) for the 2020 general election and it will remain a GRC with five MPs for GE2025.

But in terms of personnel, there has been a major change. And now the PAP finds itself with a dilemma on its hands.

New addition to East Coast

Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat welcomed Minister Edwin Tong to the East Coast team.

This is because Tong, who has portfolios in Culture, Community & Youth and also Law, is responsible for the Joo Chiat ward that has been absorbed into East Coast GRC.

Speaking to Mothership on Mar. 15, Heng did not confirm whether Tong would be fielded in East Coast for the upcoming election, but said his team in East Coast would welcome and work together with Tong.

Heng also mentioned that Prime Minister Lawrence Wong would announce further details in due course.

The Dilemma

East Coast is now in something of a quandary. In 2020, no other constituency fielded more than two Cabinet-level ministers at the time of the election. This held true for even the bigger, 5-member GRCs.

But with the addition of Tong, East Coast now has three such ministers — Heng, Tong, and Maliki Osman, 2nd Minister for Education and Foreign Affairs.

It's likely that one will make way. But who will it be?

Heng Swee Keat

Let's start with Heng. Those who remember GE2020 will remember the dramatic circumstances under which the deputy prime minister found himself competing in East Coast in the first place.

In 2015, Heng stood for election in Tampines GRC, handily winning with over 72 per cent of the vote.

But on Nomination Day in 2020, Heng was spotted driving into nomination centre 9, St. Anthony's Canossian Primary School.

His name on East Coast's slate of candidates was hand-written in blue, unlike the others which were printed in black.

The seemingly last-minute move paid off for the PAP.

Heng and the East Coast team managed to defend their turf against a Workers' Party team (including Nicole Seah) that was widely-tipped to do well in the election.

But what does this mean for 2025?

It would be unlikely, though not impossible, to uproot Heng yet again, the second time in as many elections.

But he would be leaving behind the work he has put into East Coast, including future developments for the residents, especially seniors.

Edwin Tong

Another option would be to move the newcomer, Edwin Tong, perhaps back to Marine Parade. But this has its drawbacks.

While Tong may be new to East Coast GRC, he is already well-known in his Joo Chiat ward, having served as MP there since 2015.

With his ward becoming part of East Coast GRC, the PAP may be keen not to uproot Tong to signal "continuity" to the residents, despite them "moving" to a new GRC.

And since Tan See Leng was made a Cabinet minister after GE2020, Marine Parade will still have an anchor minister, even without Tong.

According to a Straits Times article citing political observers, they noted a "growing number of voters in Joo Chiat" having thrown their weight behind Tong. Which they noted could be a "boon" for East Coast GRC.

In a Facebook post, Tong said "our commitment to serving our residents remains unchanged."

He added, "I look forward to working with the East Coast team to build a strong and vibrant community in the East."

While this is not a confirmation, it could be a hint that Tong will be part of PAP's East Coast team.

Maliki Osman

The other minister, Maliki Osman, seems like the most likely candidate to leave East Coast.

Maliki, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office and Second Minister for Education and Foreign Affairs, helms the Siglap ward.

This includes the Loyang and Flora estates that the EBRC recommended to be added to the new Pasir Ris-Changi GRC.

Indeed, Maliki recently met with Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean, the anchor for the old Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC.

They discussed the "good number of residents" who have moved between Pasir Ris and Changi.

But that doesn't mean that Maliki is a shoo-in for Pasir Ris-Changi.

And it's down to the minority candidate requirements for GRCs.

Currently, Maliki is the only Malay MP representing East Coast GRC, with the other four MPs being Chinese.

Also, Pasir Ris-Punggol currently has Sharael Taha, a Malay MP for Pasir Ris East.

If Maliki is indeed moved to Pasir Ris-Changi, and Sharael remains in Pasir Ris, the GRC would have two Malay candidates for the upcoming election, while leaving East Coast GRC in search for replacement minority candidate.

So who will the PAP ultimately field in both East Coast and Pasir Ris-Changi?

Whatever decision is made, we feel confident in saying that East Coast GRC will not have three ministers fielded in the next election.

Top image from Maliki Osman, Heng Swee Keat and Edwin Tong's Facebook pages.