Netanyahu's govt hangs in the balance as exit polls show effective tie in Israel general election

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure could be in jeopardy, as early exit polls for Israel's first general election since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack indicated a virtual tie with the opposition.

The Guardian reported that exit polls indicated that the opposition bloc of parties would win more seats than Netanyahu’s coalition, although with no clear overall winner.

High Turnout

The election took place on Oct. 27, and NPR reports a turnout of 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999.

Some have called it one of the most pivotal elections in Israel's history, as it is currently in the middle of ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Iran, with further conflicts brewing with neighbours such as Syria.

Netanyahu is personally unpopular, with the Times of Israel reporting that 58 per cent of Israelis rate his performance as poor, as many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 attacks, viewing it as a security failure.

His most prominent opponent, the former head of the Israeli Defense Forces, Gadi Eisenkot, is also very security-minded, and has promised to oust the Palestinian militant group Hamas from Gaza.

Netanyahu’s Likud party has emerged as the largest individual party in exit polls, but an analyst speaking to the BBC called it a “meaningless consolation prize” as his coalition appears to have been eclipsed by Eisenkot’s bloc.

However, later exit polls would show that the two blocs are effectively tied, predicted to each have won around 51 seats, with each needing 61 seats to form a government.

Coalition forming

The BBC also reported that opposition parties have begun to declare the end of Netanyahu’s government, pledging to work together to form a government.

The leader of the left-leaning Democrats party said it was willing to “work with all its partners” to form a new government, and that the Netanyahu government had been “ousted.”

Former prime minister Yair Lapid said that Netanyahu’s coalition had suffered a “crushing defeat.”

But it may take several days before a winner is ultimately decided, as the many parties in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, jostle to form a coalition with a governing majority.

Experts said that Netanyahu might still be able to find his way back to government by appealing to centrist parties.

Netanyahu might be on his way out if the exit polls are accurate, but the electoral process is far from over.