Unofficial vote count suggests Barisan Nasional won an even bigger supermajority in Johor state election

Results coming in from the Jul. 11 Johor state election indicate that the Barisan Nasional coalition looks to have increased its state assembly supermajority, with only the Pakatan Harapan coalition of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim left in opposition with a diminished seat count.

Time to build

Polls closed at 6pm, and by 8:30pm, BN leaders had declared victory, claiming that according to unofficial counts, they had won 31 out of 56 seats, more than enough for a simple majority, as reported by the Malay Mail and New Straits Times.

Although official results will likely take a few days, unofficially, BN felt confident enough to not just claim overall victory, but a supermajority too.

At around 9pm, incumbent Menteri Besar (chief minister) Onn Hafiz Ghazi thanked voters for the result, and pledged to serve all Johoreans, saying “whether they supported us or not is unimportant," according to the Malay Mail.

“Now is the time to build the Johor we always dreamed of,” Onn Hafiz said, adding that his focus was now on continuing efforts to develop the state, as well as improving Johoreans' wellbeing.

Five seats lost, one seat gained?

By 9:45pm, PH election director Amirudin Shari said that PH had won eight seats, six coming from the Democratic Action Party, one from Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat, and one from Amanah, according to Free Malaysia Today.

It appears that PKR has won one seat from third party Muda, suggesting that it lost its incumbent seat.

In the outgoing state assembly, BN held a supermajority of 40 seats, with PH winning 12, Perikatan Nasional winning three, and Syed Saddiq’s MUDA winning one.

This means that the multi-racial DAP has lost four seats, suggesting a loss of faith not just amongst voters, but amongst the Chinese and Indian voters that form the core of its support.

Amirudin said that the coalition accepted the outcome, and would continue to serve the people, as quoted by the Malay Mail.

Voter rebound

Voter turnout appears to have recovered from the low of 55 per cent in 2022.

As of 5pm, voter turnout had reached nearly 67.5 per cent, with Free Malaysia Today reporting that nearly 1.8 million people had voted in the election, according to the Malaysian Election Commission.

Turnout is expected to reach at least 70 per cent, with the EC citing strong public interest during the campaign period.

Wipeout

In recent months, the PN coalition has fractured.

While leaders of Parti Islam se-Malaysia and Bersatu, the main two parties in the coalition, advocated for Malay unity at a national level, the schism between the two parties widened, leading to near total fracture.

Still coalition-mates for the Johor election, they were unable to field candidates for all seats, with PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang instead urging voters to vote for BN where PN was not standing.

Free Malaysia Today reports that PAS leaders will not speak to press on Jul. 11, and would wait for official results before commenting.

It looks like voters may have listened, but not closely enough; by 10pm, it looked like PN would lose all three of its seats, including the Bukit Kepong seat held by Sahruddin Jamal, a former MB.

Other third parties, like former PH leader Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama lost deposits in at least three of 10 seats it was running in, and MUDA looks set to lose its one seat.

What’s next?

The Johor state election is the start of a mini-election season, with Negeri Sembilan holding its own state election on Aug. 1, and Melaka and Sarawak expected to hold elections by the end of the year.

Like Johor, BN and PH will square off again, after PH said it would contest all 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan.

There are suggestions that the state elections are all precursors to a general election.

The current unity government, consisting of PH, BN’s anchor party UMNO, and several East Malaysian parties, is required to hold new elections by February 2027, although fresh elections are expected sooner.