After Barisan Nasional's landslide win in Johor, could they make a comeback on the M'sia national stage?

Editor's Note: This article was updated to reflect official results and analysis since Jul. 12.

In the week since the Johor state election of Jul. 11, different lessons are being learnt from the election. 

The first thing is there are a number of unlikely outcomes that will probably not reoccur during a general election. 

One such outcome is noted in a Rajaratnam School of International Studies analysis, that points out that many MCA and MIC victories occurred not because of support from their base, but due to Malay voters instructed to support BN candidates in areas where PN candidates were not standing. 

MCA and MIC candidates may not enjoy that outcome in future elections, but as the analyst Ben Suffian points out, in a circumstance where PN voters seek to both punish UMNO and block PH, they will prioritise the latter over the former. 

Personality contest: 

The personal popularity of Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi appears to have played a pivotal role in running up the score for BN. 

Often seen visiting places where government  intervention is felt to be needed, not just at the causeway, but also in rural settler areas and everywhere in between, he has made the most to of his 80 per cent approval rating. 

As a comment piece by The Straits Times noted, he has gained his own political chant of “Onn tak Onn”, which has the same sentiment of “LFG”. 

His party leader Zahid Hamidi tried to emulate it at a rally, trying to start a “Zahid tak Zahid” chant and was apparently met with silence”. 

Spoilers

A sore point for PH, one that might hold wider implications than just Johor is the vote share. 

One of the losers of the election, PH’s largest party the Democratic Action Party, lost 4 seats, but actually saw its vote share go up. 

It also shines a light on smaller reform based third parties like Bersama, who may have taken as many as four seats away from PH, the entire margin of their loss. 

If Bersama wants to cast itself as anything other than a spoiler party, it will have to reassess how and where it campaigns. 

Party leader Rafizi Ramli is determined to do just that, saying the party will sit out the upcoming Negeri Sembilan state elections to focus on Meleka, due by the end of the year.

Official results

On Jul. 12, the Election Commission of Malaysia confirmed the results of the Jul.11, 2026, Johor state election, as reported by Bernama.

Barisan Nasional was confirmed to have won the election with a two-thirds supermajority of 48 out of 56 seats.

BN needed 29 seats to win a simple majority, and 37 seats to win a supermajority; and held 40 seats in the outgoing state assembly.

BN's component parties all picked up seats, with UMNO winning three more seats with 36 overall, the Malaysian Indian Congress won one more seat with four, but most tellingly, the Malaysian Chinese Association won four more seats, with eight overall.

Their main opponents, the governing Pakatan Harapan coalition, with whom BN anchor party UMNO is part of a unity government, were the only group to win any seats.

PH won eight seats, down from 12, with the Democratic Action Party losing four seats to end with six, Amanah winning one, and the Parti Keadilan Rakyat winning one seat.

Perikatan Nasional lost all its seats, with Bersatu losing two and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia losing one.

Progressive third parties like MUDA and Bersama failed to win any seats, with MUDA losing the one it held, and both parties losing all their deposits, having failed to attain at least 1/8 or 12.5 per cent of the vote.

Original story follows below

Results coming in from the Jul. 11 Johor state election indicate that the Barisan Nasional coalition looks to have increased its state assembly supermajority, with only the Pakatan Harapan coalition of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim left in opposition with a diminished seat count.

Time to build

Polls closed at 6pm, and by 8:30pm, BN leaders had declared victory, claiming that according to unofficial counts, they had won 31 out of 56 seats, more than enough for a simple majority, as reported by the Malay Mail and New Straits Times.

Although official results will likely take a few days, unofficially, BN felt confident enough to not just claim overall victory, but a supermajority too.

At around 9pm, incumbent Menteri Besar (chief minister) Onn Hafiz Ghazi thanked voters for the result, and pledged to serve all Johoreans, saying “whether they supported us or not is unimportant," according to the Malay Mail.

“Now is the time to build the Johor we always dreamed of,” Onn Hafiz said, adding that his focus was now on continuing efforts to develop the state, as well as improving Johoreans' wellbeing.

Five seats lost, one seat gained?

By 9:45pm, PH election director Amirudin Shari said that PH had won eight seats, six coming from the Democratic Action Party, one from Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat, and one from Amanah, according to Free Malaysia Today.

It appears that PKR has won one seat from third party Muda, suggesting that it lost its incumbent seat.

In the outgoing state assembly, BN held a supermajority of 40 seats, with PH winning 12, Perikatan Nasional winning three, and Syed Saddiq’s MUDA winning one.

This means that the multi-racial DAP has lost four seats, suggesting a loss of faith not just amongst voters, but amongst the Chinese and Indian voters that form the core of its support.

Amirudin said that the coalition accepted the outcome, and would continue to serve the people, as quoted by the Malay Mail.

Voter rebound

Voter turnout appears to have recovered from the low of 55 per cent in 2022.

As of 5pm, voter turnout had reached nearly 67.5 per cent, with Free Malaysia Today reporting that nearly 1.8 million people had voted in the election, according to the Malaysian Election Commission.

Turnout is expected to reach at least 70 per cent, with the EC citing strong public interest during the campaign period.

Wipeout

In recent months, the PN coalition has fractured.

While leaders of Parti Islam se-Malaysia and Bersatu, the main two parties in the coalition, advocated for Malay unity at a national level, the schism between the two parties widened, leading to near total fracture.

Still coalition-mates for the Johor election, they were unable to field candidates for all seats, with PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang instead urging voters to vote for BN where PN was not standing.

Free Malaysia Today reports that PAS leaders will not speak to press on Jul. 11, and would wait for official results before commenting.

It looks like voters may have listened, but not closely enough; by 10pm, it looked like PN would lose all three of its seats, including the Bukit Kepong seat held by Sahruddin Jamal, a former MB.

Other third parties, like former PH leader Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama lost deposits in at least three of 10 seats it was running in, and MUDA looks set to lose its one seat.

What’s next?

The Johor state election is the start of a mini-election season, with Negeri Sembilan holding its own state election on Aug. 1, and Melaka and Sarawak expected to hold elections by the end of the year.

Like Johor, BN and PH will square off again, after PH said it would contest all 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan.

There are suggestions that the state elections are all precursors to a general election.

The current unity government, consisting of PH, BN’s anchor party UMNO, and several East Malaysian parties, is required to hold new elections by February 2027, although fresh elections are expected sooner.