EBRC not formed. So when will the next S'pore General Elections happen? Here's our two cents.

We are back with another update on the status of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC).

It has still not been convened.

This was confirmed by Education Minister Chan Chun Sing, who was speaking on behalf of Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, in parliament on Aug. 7.

The answer has remained unchanged since Mothership contacted the Elections Department (ELD) in May 2024.

Why are we looking out for this?

The EBRC is comprised of senior civil servants, who will assess recent population shifts and housing developments to redefine the electoral boundaries just before each GE.

Once we learn that the committee is being convened, we can typically expect GE to be called soon and chart the rough timeline leading up to polling day.

For reference, the 2020 GE and its EBRC were announced on September 4, 2019.

The committee's report was subsequently released on Mar. 13, 2020, after which parliament was dissolved before polling day on Jul. 10, 2020.

So when will it happen?

With a fast dwindling number of months leading up to the looming deadline (November 2025), the island has been rife with speculation over when exactly the next GE will be called.

Here's what we think.

September to November 2024

We wouldn't hold our breath if we were you.

Even though September 2024 was one of the most anticipated months for the next GE, it seems increasingly unlikely the GE will be called during this month.

If GE really were going to happen then, we would likely have heard about the EBRC being convened by now.

October and November would likely be difficult, too, as it's still a relatively short timeframe. It's also when schools would be busy with exams.

But never say never.

According to the past four GEs, we usually wait between two to seven months for the report to be released after the EBRC convenes.

Subsequently, Singapore has waited from as little as 17 days to six or seven months after the committee released their report for polling day.

However, in some instances, the committee's report was published mere days before parliament was dissolved. In 1991, it took six days, and in 2001, it took just one.

December 2024

Nope.

We'd like to think that this month is reserved for people to unwind and enjoy the end-of-year festivities.

This is also one of the peak travelling periods. And if more people are overseas, it means less people are at the polls.

It's also generally a bad idea to interfere with Singaporeans and their travel plans, except in GE 1984 (Dec. 22) and GE 1980 (Dec. 23).

But this was a different era of five and a half-day work weeks and a different generation.

January to March 2025

Chinese New Year 2025 will fall on Jan. 29 to Jan. 30.

In recent memory, only one GE has ever happened in January (GE 1997).

As for February, that's when the government will typically deliver their Budget statement.

If there are certain payouts doled out, such as in the 2024 Budget Statement, it might be prudent to hold off GE till after the Budget, when people are still feeling thankful and appreciative of their "ang baos".

March will likely be blocked out for the 2025 Committee of Supply (COS) debates.

The annual COS debates allow each ministry to share its plans and the funds needed to execute them. The last one ran for nine days, from Feb. 28 to Mar. 7, 2024.

We reckon the debates are important enough that nothing else will be introduced in this month to steal the spotlight.

However, there is a chance that GE may still be called during or after the March school holidays.

April to May 2025

We've got our eye on these two months.

If we had to bet, we'd say there is a high chance of GE being called then.

Two out of the past four GEs — GE 2006 and GE 2011 — were conducted in May, while the first GE since independence was conducted in April, 1968.

We do have to take into account any prevalent issues that might crop up, such as those relating to housing, jobs, and the cost of living, as these might affect the ruling party's confidence in registering their names on the ballots.

May to November 2025

If it still hasn't happened by this point, there's not much room for speculation since the next GE must be held by November 2025.

At this point, the government might wait till after National Day and the National Day Rally in August, when they have had the chance to consolidate their achievements and people are still riding the high of the nation's 60th birthday.

Then again, no matter how we or other media speculate — and the reason why people are so concerned about when the EBRC is called — is because its only then that we can be sure that GE will happen soon.

Although it's really still anyone's guess as to how long after EBRC is called that GE will take place.

Top image via PAP Nee Soon GRC and The Workers' Party/Facebook