Australia says over 50% chance of terrorist attack occurrence in next year

The Australian government raised its terror threat level from "possible" to "probable" on Aug. 5, citing more extremist views in the country, reported Reuters.

This indicates a greater than 50 per cent chance of an onshore attack or attack planning in the next 12 months.

According to the Australian National Security website, the country's security landscape "has entered a vulnerable period".

More domestic actors have been observed being driven to action by a combination of socio-political issues and personal grievances, the website said.

It explained:

"There is an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies.

Some actors hold a blend of ideologies, including those that justify acts of violence to influence change."

The website also noted that the Islamic State and its affiliates are "almost certainly" planning to conduct further attacks in the West, and "would consider Australia a legitimate target".

Younger people are "particularly at risk" of being targeted by extremist narratives, it added.

In a news conference about the announcement, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters that he had raised the country's threat level following advice from security services but that there was no imminent threat of an attack.

Director general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Mike Burgess added that tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, were a contributing factor to the decision.

"The conflict has fuelled grievances, promoted protests, undermined social cohesion and elevated intolerance," he said according to Reuters.

Australia previously spent eight years with its threat level at "probable" before lowering it to "possible" in 2022.

Top image from Dan Freeman/Unsplash