Red or Blue? The states deciding the 2024 US presidential election: Michigan

The U.S. election is coming up, with voters in all 50 states deciding who to elect as the next president.

But most states are considered "safe", either solidly Republican or Democratic, and both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have not spent time or money trying to persuade the voters there.

Instead both candidates are gunning for the main prize — seven "swing" states that will determine the election, and the presidency.

Michigan early history

The state of Michigan, bordering the Great Lakes, was settled by Native American tribes for centuries, before being colonised by the French, and then the British.

The British ceded the territory to the Americans after the Revolution, and it was admitted as a free state in 1837.

After a border dispute with Ohio, Michigan was awarded the "Upper Peninsula" area north of Wisconsin, which means the two parts of the state are separated by the waters of Lake Michigan.

At the turn of the century, Michigan was home to industrialist Henry Ford's mass production plant in the city of Detroit. The mass-produced automobile transformed American life and helped to create the burgeoning middle class.

During World War II, Michigan's industrial might was crucial to American armament production.

After the war, the state continued to grow and prosper, but faced economic problems in the second half of the 20th century, and the first half of the 21st.

Michigan is part of the group of states called the "Rust Belt", referring to an area once dominated by manufacturing and industry.

However, they were hit hard by economic downturns and globalisation leading to manufacturing being moved "offshore", usually to Asian countries like China.

Political history of Michigan

Throughout the 19th century, Michigan generally backed the Republicans until the Great Depression hit, and it went for Franklin Roosevelt three times out of four.

Afterwards, Michigan became somewhat of a swing state that went for both Republicans and Democrats, usually backing the winner.

Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson all won Michigan in their respective elections.

Michigan is also the home state of one president, Gerald Ford, although he only became president after Nixon resigned and lost his subsequent election to Jimmy Carter.

From 2000, when it voted for Al Gore, Michigan has always went for the Democratic candidate until 2016, when Donald Trump won it, elevating him to the presidency.

2024 presidential election

But how did Trump win such a reliably Democratic state over Hillary Clinton?

Michigan's manufacturing strength became a liability when more open trade in the late 20th century saw more factories being moved overseas.

Detroit, once hailed as a city of progress and economic growth, saw and decline and even went bankrupt.

While Michigan going for Trump was a shock result, some political observers, including Bill Clinton, had warned the Hillary Clinton campaign about seeing warning signs on the ground.

Manufacturing and competition from China

These observers saw resentment against the party that blue collar workers felt did not do enough to protect their economic interests, which grew worse during the Great Recession that began in 2008.

Manufacturing and economic competition from China was another big issue in the 2024 campaign.

Donald Trump promised to slap a 100 per cent or even a 200 per cent tariff on cars made in China while campaigning in Michigan, even though observers have pointed out such tariffs would likely pass on the costs to the consumer.

Meanwhile Kamala Harris, in a reversal from a 2019 position, has said she no longer supports a mandate to have all U.S. automakers sell only electric vehicles by 2040, likely with an eye on Michigan voters.

Gaza

However, another major factor impacting the Michigan vote may not be China, but Gaza instead.

Michigan is home to a sizeable population of Muslim Americans, over 240,000, according to World Population Review, making up 2.4 per cent of the state.

The city of Dearborn in Michigan has one of the biggest populations of Muslim Americans in the U.S., with the country's largest mosque.

Following the Israel-Hamas war that has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people in Gaza, many Muslim voters turned against the Democratic Party, blaming President Joe Biden for not doing more to stop the war or restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

And while Biden is no longer running, these voters are not going to support Kamala Harris either.

They have either voted for Trump, a third party candidate or not at all.

While Harris has pledged to do all she can to bring about a ceasefire, her rallies have frequently been interrupted by pro-Palestine protesters.

It remains to be seen whether the Gaza vote will have an impact on how Michigan goes in 2024.

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Top image via Canva and Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Facebook pages.