Harris ahead of Trump in Iowa, according to gold-standard poll

A shocking final Des Moines Register poll before the United States presidential election day on Nov. 5, 2024 has placed Kamala Harris 3 points ahead of Donald Trump in the state of Iowa.

Des Moines is a city in Iowa.

Trump won Iowa by sizeable margins during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections.

Many had not considered the state a swing state for the first time in nearly 30 years, Politico reported, but that now appears to be a mistake.

The gold-standard poll, which had correctly predicted the result in Iowa for the previous two presidential elections, has taken pollsters by surprise.

The poll shows Harris leading Trump 47 to 44 per cent, which is a surprising turnaround.  

Women drive late shift

The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28 to 31.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. [Harris] has clearly leaped into a leading position," said pollster J. Ann Selzer.

According to Selzer, women who are older or who are politically independent drove the late shift toward Harris.

Some female poll respondents cited Harris' policies on reproductive health, and having women choose their own healthcare, as reasons for favouring the vice president.

Top photo from Kamala Harris Facebook & Donald Trump Facebook.