Professor gets Trump vs Harris prediction wrong with his '13 keys' method, betting markets more accurate

The American University history professor, who predicted nine out of 10 U.S. presidential elections before the latest one in 2024, eventually got it wrong.

This was after he picked Kamala Harris to narrowly beat Donald Trump, but the American people chose otherwise.

Allan Lichtman, 77, has since addressed the error of his forecast, where he had said his "13 keys" system showed Harris would win.

The Keys Missed pic.twitter.com/FzsVbKcXFf

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024

"Right now after a very long night I am taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America," Lichtman told USA Today on Wednesday morning, hours after Trump's commanding lead in both the popular vote and Electoral College indicated that his stunning political comeback was real.

Reaction to Trump's win

Lichtman's reaction to the states going Trump's way, in what has been dubbed a "red wave", was narrowcast in real time in a nearly six-hour livestream hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman on Tuesday.

At the end of it, the historian and election forecaster said he was shocked at the election's outcome.

In a post on X on Wednesday morning, Lichtman said he will speak on his incorrect prediction later in the week and thanked "all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show".

Using his system, Lichtman has now correctly predicted nine out of 11 presidential elections since 1984.

He only got the 2000 election wrong after he picked Al Gore to beat George W. Bush — but that election was arguably stolen.

Live show on results night

What was touted as a real nail-biter that could take days, if not weeks, to decide was effectively called in one day.

And the return of Trump with such substantial support elicited a physical reaction from Lichtman.

His son said during the last 10 minutes of the show when it was clear Harris did not have a path to 270 electoral votes: "I think she lost."

"I do too," Lichtman responded and placed his fingers to his temples.

I'm still looking for a Pennsylvania miracle but I don't think we're going to have it," he added.

Pennsylvania was later called for Trump.

"At a certain point the math just doesn't math anymore," his son said towards the end of the interview.

Harris was foreseen by some to narrowly win in a majority of the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

As counting progressed, Trump won five of the states and was leading in Nevada and Arizona, which had yet to be called.

Asserted "13 keys" method right

This reckoning was a stark contrast to the professor's confidence previously.

In a previous broadcast, Lichtman reassured viewers to “ignore the polls” and keep the faith in his method.

“The keys to the White House do not change,” he had said, referring to “The Keys to the White House” system he developed with a collaborator in 1981.

Trump, who lost the 2020 election, overcame political obstacles, including two impeachments, a criminal conviction, and two attempted assassinations.

Online betting companies fared better

Online betting companies fared better in this prediction domain in comparison, beating both Lichtman's method and polling.

Five companies — Betfair, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets — gave Trump a better-than-even chance of winning on the eve of polling day.

Their odds in favour of his winning shot up past 60 per cent chance as polls closed on Tuesday.

Polymarket, one of the companies offering betting opportunities, allowed punters to make a choice with a stake on who they think will win.

In return for a correct answer, they win money via cryptocurrency.

An anonymous French punter put US$30 million on Trump.

He is believed to have walked away with a US$80 million payout.

Top photos via Allan Lichtman & Donald Trump