US tensions with China to continue whether Trump or Harris wins presidential election: SM Lee

Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke at the 15th FutureChina Global Forum at Marina Bay Sands on Oct. 18, touching on subjects such as the China's development, the U.S.-China relationship, and even video games.

During the question-and-answer session, he was asked whether Singapore would find a trilateral relationship, including China and the United States, easier to handle under a potential Kamala Harris or Donald Trump U.S. administration.

Speaking carefully

Although SM Lee was in the Mandarin-speaking part of the question and answer session, he said he would speak in English because he wanted to be very careful, as the U.S. elections were imminent.

He said that tensions between China and the United States are not personality-based.

In the U.S. a social consensus, a deep attitude, had formed within both major political parties that China was a challenger, a rival, perhaps even a long-term threat to the U.S.

In China, on the other hand, there was a very deep conviction that “Americans wanted to stop the Chinese from matching them”, even saying that the Chinese believed that the U.S. wanted them to remain behind them, and prevent both countries from matching.

Bi-partisan agreement

SM Lee said that this was a fundamental contradiction, which would not go away.

For the U.S., where Democrats and Republicans agreed on very few issues, this perception of China is one source of agreement.

SM Lee said that he found the matter very serious, and regardless of whether Harris or Trump won the presidential election, that attitude would not change.

He opined that if Harris won, the relationship would progress more predictably.

There would be fewer sudden shocks and less risk of things going completely out of control, but he reiterated that the basic attitude would not change.

Uncharted territory

However, with Trump, things could progress in many more sudden directions.

SM Lee recounted that Trump had said he would put a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese products, and 10 per cent tariff on all imports from every other country in the world.

“And he may possibly do that…

…And if he does that, you are in uncharted territory.

From the experience with Trump’s previous administration, he would have a team that he would depend on that had “certain ideas” on how they wanted to do things.

But it was also possible that Trump might try to “ad-lib”, and take unexpected actions.

Trump’s attitude towards America’s allies would be significantly different from that of the past four year’s Democratic administration. For example, Trump would likely pull out of NATO and demanded that allies such as Korea and Japan pay for the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In closing, SM Lee recounted how Pope Francis, when on his way back to Rome from Singapore, was asked to choose between Harris and Trump.

SM Lee said that the Pope had found it a very difficult question and that he did not know how to choose.

“If the Pope does not know, I do not know either.”

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Top image via Prime Minister's Office, Singapore/YouTube