China will go through 'a very difficult patch over the next 10 to 20 years': Kishore Mahbubani

China is set to face a challenging decade or two regardless of the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential election, opined Kishore Mahbubani during a panel discussion held at Fullerton Bay on Aug. 15.

The former diplomat was sharing his insights at a closed event marking the launch of his latest book, Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir.

"I do believe that China is going to go through a very difficult patch over the next 10 to 20 years, the U.S.-China geopolitical contest will definitely accelerate. Things will get more difficult," he said.

“Regardless of whether [Donald] Trump or [Kamala] Harris wins, [it’s] irrelevant. For all of us in Singapore, I think it's very important that we understand this contest as well as we can, because it is going to have lots of ramifications for us”, emphasised Mahbubani.

The U.S. is currently in the midst of heavy campaigning between Harris and Trump for the 2024 presidential election, which will conclude on Nov. 5, 2024

Mahbubani’s remarks also come amid escalating U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, with China’s latest restriction on antimony exports, a raw material used in weapon making that the U.S. is heavily dependent on.

Watching China's "massive reversal"

Mahbubani was responding to a question posed by an audience member, who had asked if there had been a specific incident that shaped his perspectives on China.

Mahbubani, who led an illustrious career of 33 years of service in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), said there wasn't any single pinpoint moment.

Instead, Singapore's former Permanent Representative to the United Nations shared how it was looking at paramount leader Deng Xiao Ping’s “massive reversal” of Mao Ze Dong’s “absolute control” that had rendered Mahbubani “astonished” and “fascinated”.

Mahbubani said:

"So it was that big event that got me fascinated to find out: how did this happen? And by the way, there is a contrast. As you can see, not all societies succeed in turning things around and succeeding, but China, somehow or other, managed to do it.”

Launched by intellects

The book launch saw a panel discussion between Mahbubani, Chan Heng Chee, Wang Gungwu, and Tommy Koh, who each opened the launch with a speech.

During the discussion, Mahbubani, Chan, and Koh reminisced about lunches with the late prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, and spoke fondly about his exceptional ability to be a skilled listener in private conversations and engage in deep debate.

Koh noted that he was always “very respectful of our different views”, while Chan described how she was “initially shocked” by the style of debate, and she found it “remarkable that Lee would listen and argue back”.

“You must be able to take it. If you melt, that’s the end of it”, Chan expounded.

The lunches between the trio of diplomats and Lee are also described in Mahbubani's new book, which details his unlikely rise from poverty and a one-bedroom house in Joo Chiat to holding some of Singapore's top posts in the foreign service.

Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir by Kishore Mahbubani can be purchased at Kinokuniya or via Amazon.

Top photo via Time, the White House, Getty Images, and Danny Quah/Facebook