Despite seeing "little progress" in the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) on the conflict in Myanmar, Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan's belief in it has held fast.

He expressed this sentiment during a Q&A session with the media at the 57th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and Related Meetings in Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, which was held from Jul. 21 to 27, 2024.

Situation in Myanmar

Myanmar has been embroiled in civil war ever since its military seized power from the democratically elected government in February 2021.

The coup saw the country descending into a veritable state of chaos, with democratic officials being detained and citizens taking to the streets to protest — some even resorting to armed resistance.

In an attempt to help Myanmar find its way back to some semblance of political normalcy, Asean and the military government came up with the 5PC.

Among other requests, the consensus calls for an end to violence and the release of political prisoners, including Myanmar's deposed leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Myanmar military has yet to show acceptance of the 5PC.

Need for careful foreign interference

The fundamental problem with Myanmar, according to Balakrishnan, is that it is a large, wealthy country with diverse demographics, that has "never quite achieved a consensus on its national identity".

"This didn't just happen three years ago. It's actually been, unfortunately, a decades-long problem," the minister said.

Myanmar's "complicated case" thus requires Asean to be cautious about stepping in.

Such interferences may take on the form of humanitarian assistance, encouraging national reconciliation, and other political meetings.

Right place, right time

Balakrishnan deemed the military government a "dead end" — a view he said has been conveyed by Singapore "to all sides".

He pointed to the decline in Myanmar's economy since 2019, adding that one-third of its people are entrenched in poverty, with another one-third plagued by economic insecurity.

"Don't expect a quick and easy solution. But we express our views, we provide humanitarian assistance, we keep lines open to all stakeholders. When we can help at the right time, right place, [with the] right sequence of actions, we will do so."

Not giving up on the plan

"To be frank," Balakrishnan admitted, "There has been very little progress on the Five-Point Consensus."

He explained that the little progress made was due to the Myanmar army's unwillingness to "sit down, release their detainees, and have real dialogue and negotiations and to make progress".

However, he continued, this situation does not warrant giving up on the game plan.

Asean has thus reaffirmed the 5PC, but only time will tell of its success.

Waiting for the opportune moment

"We will have to wait for some time or for ground situation to evolve to the point where all the stakeholders agree that it is in their own long-term interest to sit down and talk," said Balakrishnan.

He added: "Right now there's just too much kinetic or military activity going on. And that is not an opportune moment for these sorts of dialogue and negotiations to occur."

Although not having recognised the legitimacy of the military government, Asean has still made an effort to keep the country in the loop.

While the military leaders are barred from attending political Asean events, and Myanmar's seat at the table remains empty, they continue to receive the relevant audio feeds and access to all documents.

"It was never a question of them being locked out," Balakrishnan affirmed.

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Top images via Vivian Balakrishnan/Facebook and ciaomyanmar/Facebook