US, Britain, Canada, South Korea, Australia could enter recession in next 12 months

Singapore might avoid a recession.

Belmont Lay | July 05, 2022, 12:14 PM

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Many major economies around the world will enter "multiple recessions" over the next 12 months, Bloomberg reported.

The gloomy outlook forecast is according to a research note by brokerage Nomura Holdings, which said the global economy will be pushed into a synchronised growth slowdown.

A synchronised slowdown means that countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth, analysts at Nomura wrote.

The United States, euro zone, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada are expected to fall into recession.

The culprit could be central banks as they look to restore their inflation control credibility and are likely to err on the side of tightening policy too much even if it sacrifices growth, before cutting rates in 2023.

U.S. and euro area

Nomura sees both the U.S. and the euro area economies contracting 1 per cent in 2023.

High inflation is likely to persist as price pressures have spread beyond commodities to services items, rentals and wages, the note said.

The depth of recession will vary among nations though.

Nomura forecasts a shallow but long recession of five quarters for the U.S. starting from the final quarter of 2022.

Europe's slump could be much deeper if Russia entirely cuts off gas to Europe.

Australia, Canada & South Korea

Mid-sized economies, including Australia, Canada and South Korea, risk deeper-than-forecast recessions in the event of interest rate hikes that trigger housing busts.

South Korea has already seen a 2.2 per cent contraction in the third quarter of 2022, taking the sharpest early hit.


Japan is forecast to have the mildest recession owing to ongoing policy support and its delayed economic reopening.


China is recovering with the help of accommodative policies, but remains at risk of renewed lockdowns due to Beijing's zero-Covid-19 strategy.


However, a recession is not expected in Singapore in 2023 at this stage, as economic activity "has remained resilient" amid an increasingly challenging global economic environment, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Alvin Tan said in Parliament on Jul. 4.

Top photo via Unsplash