Follow us on Telegram for the latest updates: https://t.me/mothershipsg

With increased militarisation in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. must guard against miscalculation or mistakes "very, very carefully", and ensure lines of communication with both its allies and China, former CIA Director David Petraeus said on Tuesday, Oct. 19.

Building deterrence and ensuring zero miscalculation

Speaking at a virtual talk hosted by the Middle East Institute, a research institute in the National University of Singapore, Petraeus was responding to a question on the impact of militarisation in the region on the future of U.S.-China relations.

Militarisation of the Indo-Pacific has been "decades in the making", but has "much more focus, scrutiny and resources" currently, he said, adding that this has led to an "increasingly complex situation" which holds the prospects of miscalculation happening.

And with "huge initiatives" to be expected in the area, the U.S. wants to ensure that deterrence to a conflict is strong, he said.

Australia, the UK and the U.S. have formed a trilateral security pact called AUKUS, which would allow Australia to have access to more nuclear-powered submarines over the next decade to patrol the South and East China Seas.

It is widely seen as part of an effort to curtail China's growing military influence in the region, which included its building of military features in the disputed South China Sea, as well as an increase in military pressure on self-ruled Taiwan.

The defence alliance has invited strong backlash from China, which slammed the alliance as an "extremely irresponsible" threat to regional stability, ABC News reported.

America's best days are ahead: Petraeus

The former general who commanded U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan further responded to the criticisms that the U.S. has received, in the wake of a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, including accusations that the country is "an unreliable partner".

"We have to take extra care actually to demonstrate that that is not true, and I do not believe it's true, I don't think America's best days are behind us, I think they are ahead of us," he said.

He added that the U.S. would get Covid under control, get investment in "critical infrastructure that will improve productivity and boost GDP", and work together with its allies and partners in approaching "the most important relationship in the world", which is with China.

In addition, Petraeus said they will seek to collaborate on issues of common concern, such as the climate, the pandemic, and the global economy.

And while ensuring there's fair competition, they would also have to avoid potential conflict by making sure that deterrence is robust.

Doubts China would be able to "fill the vacuum"

Responding to speculation that China would step in to fill the "(power) vacuum left by the departure of the U.S. and the coalition", Petraeus said he's "not sure" that this is going to happen, and claimed that China's model is different from the U.S. as they don't give "huge amounts of money".

On the other hand, the aid the U.S. and other allies provided made up 75 per cent of the Afghan government's budget.

As for the Belt and Road Initiative, which "typically loans to countries for the construction of critical infrastructure and various projects", he further said he does not see the prospect of that contributing much to Afghanistan, given the "security challenges" that the war-torn country already faces with ISIS attacks and clashes between resistance forces and the Taliban in various places.

"So the prospects are not particularly propitious in my mind for China to rush back in," he said, adding that after putting in billions of dollars into developing a cooper mine in Logar province, they withdrew from it after they were "hit by rockets" several times.

Afghanistan is a mineral-rich country but progress stymied by armed conflict

And as with everyone else, China is "keenly aware" of the extraordinary mineral wealth in the ground in Afghanistan as well, he said.

But anyone who tries to make use of the minerals there would face difficulties doing so.

This is because even if the resources were crudely "shovelled" from the ground with a lack of sophisticated extraction means available, getting the resources out of Afghanistan to where they need to go is another problem due to the lack of human capital and infrastructure that are needed, especially if the security situation is not improved.

He added that while the U.S. managed to "get the oil industry going again" in the northern part of the country, albeit with a modest 40,000 to 50,000 barrels a day, the "project" turned out to be a failure.

"We had all of those hopes, aspirations and initiatives, when we had that large force and that security posture, but over time it just proved not possible to sustain it sadly," he elaborated.

He expressed his pessimism regarding Afghanistan's future as well, now that it has fallen to the Taliban.

"It's not clear to me, frankly, that the Taliban are going to be able to maintain the security situation that would give confidence to investors and others to do that kind of very substantial work," he said.

Petraeus had voiced his opinion on how Taliban fares against the previous Afghan government as well, saying although the government led by former president Ashraf Ghani is "far less than perfect" with its "corruption", "ineptitude" and "political nepotism", it is still "better than what has replaced them", adding that the sheer number of Afghans who are trying to get out of the country is "a reflection of how they feel about the Taliban".

Read more:

Top image by ImageCatcher News Service/Corbis via Getty Images

Follow and listen to our podcast here