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If you think of 2020's General Election (GE) as the last football match of the season, then the Cabinet reshuffle is sort of like the transfer window.

Once all the dust has settled, team People's Action Party (PAP) can take stock, reflect on their progress, and deal with personnel changes for "next season".

Of course, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong cannot look overseas for a superstar to come in, much like Pep Guardiola is planning to do at Manchester City, but he does have some young talent from the "academy" that could make a step up to the first team.

And of course, recent developments mean that PM Lee has some big shoes to fill -- particularly at the Ministry of Transport.

Announcement expected soon

Today is two weeks after GE. Hence, PM Lee is likely to announce his new Cabinet soon.

After GE2015, PM Lee announced his new Cabinet 17 days after polling day.

Following GE2011, he announced his new Cabinet two weeks after the election.

In order for us to predict what PM's Cabinet will look like, it is important to know more about the last two Cabinet announcements after GE.

We will start with the Cabinet reshuffle of GE 2015.

GE 2015

The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) achieved a landslide 69.9 per cent win.

There were seven new office holders after GE2015, five of whom were newly-elected MPs.

1. Ong Ye Kung – Minister (newly elected and appointed full minister on Oct. 28, 2016).

2. Ng Chee Meng – Minister (newly elected and appointed full minister on Oct. 28, 2016).

3. Chee Hong Tat – Minister of State (newly elected).

4. Koh Poh Koon – Minister of State from Jan. 1, 2016 (newly elected).

5. Janil Puthucheary – Minister of State from Jan. 1, 2016.

6. Baey Yam Keng – Parliamentary Secretary.

7. Amrin Amin – Parliamentary Secretary (newly elected).

There were three outgoing office-holders: Lui Tuck Yew, Hawazi Daipi, and Lee Yi Shyan.

Lui and Hawazi had both asked to retire before the 2015 general election, while Lee had asked to step down and return to the backbenches.

GE 2011

PM Lee went for a big change in his Cabinet, following the watershed GE2011.

In GE2011, PAP experienced a 6.6 per cent swing against the party to 60.14 per cent and lost a GRC for the first time.

The loss of Aljunied GRC meant losing Foreign Minister George Yeo and Minister in the Prime Minister's Office Lim Hwee Hua.

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew and Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong subsequently announced that they were leaving the Cabinet. Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng, Ministers Mah Bow Tan and Raymond Lim retired from the Cabinet.

A total of 11 of the 14 ministries had a new minister in charge, while seven new faces from amongst the re-elected MPs and new MPs joined the government.

Then Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam was promoted to Deputy Prime Minister and Senior Minister of State S Iswaran was promoted to minister.

There were also seven new office holders after GE2011, five of whom were newly elected MPs.

1. Heng Swee Keat – Minister (newly elected)

2. Chan Chun Sing - Acting Minister (newly elected)

3. Lawrence Wong - Minister of State (newly elected)

4. Tan Chuan-Jin - Minister of State (newly elected)

5. Josephine Teo - Minister of State

6. Halimah Yacob - Minister of State

7. Sim Ann - Senior Parliamentary Secretary (newly elected)

GE 2020

What will PM Lee's new Cabinet look like?

Following GE2020, there are five outgoing office-holders plus one mayor: Khaw Boon Wan, Sam Tan, Ng Chee Meng, Lam Pin Min, Amrin Amin, and Teo Ho Pin.

Transport Minister Khaw, Minister of State Sam Tan, and Mayor Teo Ho Pin retired as MPs before GE2020.

Minister and Labour Chief Ng, Senior Minister of State Lam, and Senior Parliamentary Secretary Amrin lost in the Sengkang GRC contest against the Workers' Party team.

New office-holders?

In the last two GEs, PM welcomed seven new office-holders, with five newly-elected MPs.

This time, the number could remain the same, at about five.

A few newly-elected MPs primed to be potential political office-holders include former top civil servants and SAF generals such as:

• Desmond Tan (Pasir Ris-Punggol MP-elect)
• Tan Kiat How (East Coast GRC MP-elect)
• Ng Ling Ling (Ang Mo Kio GRC MP-elect)
• Gan Siow Huang (Marymount SMC-MP elect)
• Yip Hon Weng (Yio Chu Kang SMC-MP elect)

However, the loss of three political office-holders may see an increase of new office-holders from the newly-elected MPs and the backbenches.

The transport ministry will also witness bigger leadership changes as both Khaw (as minister) and Lam (as Senior Minister of State) will not be helming the ministry.

Promotions?

PM Lee's new Cabinet of 2020 will likely see some promotions.

This is the most difficult to predict, because it is likely to be based on PM's assessment of his team, in consultation with some of his more senior colleagues.

A second DPM?

One of the key considerations will be PM's assessment on whether he requires a second Deputy Prime Minister to support him.

PM Lee usually has two DPMs supporting him since he became PM in 2006.

However, PM Lee has been working with one DPM since April 2019, after Heng Swee Keat was promoted as the DPM.

Another consideration PM has to make is whether he will be promoting a 3G or 4G leader as the next DPM.

Promotions of 4G leaders:

In January 2018, a total of 16 4G leaders issued a joint statement saying they are working closely together as a team to pick a leader.

Twelve of the 16 have become ministers in the Cabinet.

Hence, it is likely that these four Senior Ministers of State - Chee Hong Tat, Koh Poh Koon, Janil Puthucheary, and Sim Ann, will join them soon as peers in the Cabinet.

Other special mentions include Senior Minister of State Edwin Tong and Senior Parliamentary Secretary Sun Xueling.

Edwin Tong is currently the Senior Minister of State for the law and health ministries.

Tong entered Parliament after winning in the newly-formed Moulmein–Kallang GRC in GE2011.

PM Lee singled out and mentioned Tong during his July 6 GE2020 Fullerton lunchtime rally.

PM Lee spoke about measures triggered by the pandemic, such as the Jobs Support Scheme and the rental waiver, and gave credit to Minister for Law and Home Affairs K Shanmugam, Attorney-General Lucien Wong and Tong for working on the emergency legislation to make it possible.

Sun won 60.97 per cent of the votes in the newly created Punggol West SMC, beating WP candidate Tan Chen Chen, who received 39.03 per cent.

And this is on the back of WP's strong electoral performance, as it secured 50.49 per cent of total votes in the six constituencies it contested in against the PAP.

Top image via CNA