George Yeo's take on tensions between North & South Korea in 2 minutes

Negotiations is the only way out. But it will be a very long way.

George Yeo | June 08, 2017, 11:46 AM

George Yeo is Chairman and Executive Director of Hong Kong-listed Kerry Logistics Network Limited and a Director of Kerry Holdings.

He was Singapore's Minister for Trade and Industry and Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1999 to 2011. In 2008, Mr Yeo became the first Singapore foreign minister to visit Pyongyang.

This is an edited excerpt of his remarks and answers on the Korean Peninsula tensions at the 2017 Jeju Forum on June 1.

1. North Korea is a rational power. Nuclear is their only card.

Why is the North pursuing this course of action?

I have come to treat Pyongyang as a very rational power.

(In 2007) I went up to persuade them to do what Indonesia has always pushed for, which is to get North Korea to sign up to a treaty of amity and cooperation. They did it at the ASEAN Regional Forum (in 2008). They did it as a sign of respect to ASEAN, in return for us to show respect to them. They have always wanted to deal directly with the US, because they feel that this is something between them.

North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui-Chun (L) prepares to hand over to Singapore counterpart George Yeo, the signed document of Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) with 10-member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after a ceremony at the closing of ASEAN meeting in Singapore on July 24, 2008. The signing of the treaty came after a meeting of the 27-member ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia's top security dialogue. The TAC -- which calls for the settlement of disputes by peaceful means and the renunciation of the threat or use of force -- was originally signed by ASEAN member states in 1976. (ROMEO GACAD/AFP/Getty Images)

I never believe they will ever give up their nuclear card, because this is the only card they have to play again and again.

And now, they know that the only way to gain US's attention is to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), because the US over two administrations have come to the conclusion that the clock is ticking against North Korea. Just maintain the pressure and eventually something will happen. Well they said, we turn the clock against the US, miniaturized the warhead, go to solid-fuel, add stages...extrapolate it to longer parameters. Of course, the US says you are playing with fire. You do that, I will pulverize you back to stone age. Well their response is, I will pulverize South Korea to the stone age and let's see.

2. Alternative A: Embrace reforms, but the North Koreans do not want to be under China's thumb.

What is the alternative for North Korea?

It is to do what the Chinese have been wanting them to do for some time, which is: open up, follow us, develop your economy, grow like us, we will help you. And eventually you will be able to negotiate with the South (Koreans) and Americans.

But if they do that, they will be in China's hold, and I think for a while they considered that. I do not have the full story.

I hosted Jang Song Thaek in Singapore when I was Trade Minister around 2003 or 2004. He was leading a delegation, he asked for certain things and I gave them lunch. I remembered my conversation with him, he asked very pointed questions about economic development. And he was trying to create better conditions between Pyongyang and Beijing.

Then Kim Jong-un executed him (in December 2013). I felt so depressed that day. But I know one thing, they do not want to be under China's thumb. And the Chinese know it.

After visiting (Chinese border town in Liaoning Province) Dandong (in 2007), I went to Beijing and met a senior Chinese official. I said they (North Koreans) are remarkable people. Dignified, hardworking, super keen. If they were to open up like China, they will be like Vietnam. This senior Chinese official said, they will be better than Vietnam.

3. Alternative B: US-North Korea peace agreement needed, but very tough negotiations required.

What is the way out?

Iran would not negotiate seriously until it became a threshold power. North Korea is now more or less a threshold intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) power, they still have a few more tricks to learn, but they have made the major technological breakthroughs so they are in a new position, which to the Americans who have dealt with the North Koreans for a long time and found them duplicitous, this is very hard to accept.

This undated photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on May 30, 2017 shows a test-fire of a ballistic missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea.(STR/AFP/Getty Images)

But at the same time, there will be an occasion now to have some very tough negotiations. Because what is their alternative?

There is no alternative. Start a war? They can't start a war, move with China, they may yet do that, I do not know but they will prefer not to.

Psychologically, the Chinese know that one day if there is a peace agreement with the US, the North Koreans will quickly move towards the US away from China. And that will be interesting because you have in the South over the years a movement towards China, and you have in the North a movement towards the US. Then the two-state solution that PM Lee Hong-koo talked earlier becomes a feasible proposition. And then many other things become possible.

I remember when I was negotiating the free trade agreement with (South Korea) Trade Minister Hwang Doo-yun for Kaesong Industrial Complex, for tariff purposes, it was part of South Korea. The North Koreans were pleased about it. South Korea wanted it and later used it as a template for negotiations with Chile and with ASEAN. When President Park Geun-hye decided to shut down Kaesong, I was heartbroken, I thought she could have toughened it, make it more difficult but don't shut it down. Because once you shut it down, re-opening is that much more difficult. You lose one dial of control.

This picture taken on February 12, 2017 shows barricades set on the road leading to North Korea's Kaesong joint industrial complex at a South Korean military checkpoint in the border city of Paju near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the two Koreas.(JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/Getty Images)

In the end, this problem requires a balance of terror for there to be a way out. But that way out will be a very long road. It is not realistic to expect a peace treaty between the North and South (Korea) before the issues are settled with the larger powers. The division of the Korean Peninsula was the result of titanic forces dividing the big powers. And reunification can only come when the big powers are realigned. Hopefully conditions will be better in the future, we do not know.

One thing for sure is what happens in China will always have a profound impact on what happens in the Peninsula. I have read the classic book East Asia: The Great Tradition by Fairbank and Reischauer. At the back of the book is a big chart: China, Korea, Japan, Vietnam. And you can almost match periods in China and periods in Korea. When China was divided, Korea was divided, Korea reached its greatest unity when China was under Han (dynasty), under Tang (dynasty), under Yuan (dynasty), under Ming (dynasty) and under Qing (dynasty). And China today is re-emerging as a pre-eminent power in East Asia, that's a given.

So, from that perspective, historical conditions for Korean reunification are good. But of course, this is the 21st century, there are other players involved.

Diplomacy is absolutely required and some very tough negotiations lie ahead of us. A North-South treaty will come after a North Korean-American treaty.

10 North Korean missile tests so far in 2017

February 11

Successfully tested a land-based KN-15 missile, a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile, which traveled 500 km into the Sea of Japan. It was its first successful solid-fueled missile fired from a mobile launcher.

Mobile-launched missiles are harder to track and can be fired at short notice.

March 5

Launched five medium-range Scud-er (extended range) missiles. Four traveled more than 965 km, the upper limit of their range, into the Sea of Japan. The fifth took off, but later crashed.

Shortly after this test occurred, the U.S. delivered the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to South Korea

March 21

Tested a mobile-launched missile which exploded "within seconds of launch," according to U.S. Pacific Command.

April 4

Conducted a KN-17 (a new mobile-launched, single-stage missile that uses liquid fuel) missile launch just days before Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

April 15

Launched another KN-17 that exploded shortly after launch.

April 28

Fired a KN-17, the missile traveled 34 km before breaking up in mid-air.

May 14

First successful test of KN-17 medium range missile after several previous failures. Launched from Kusong, in western North Korea, the missile flew for 700 km before landing in the Sea of Japan, 97 km from the Russian border.

May 21

Successfully launched a KN-15. The missile traveled over just over 483 km into the Sea of Japan.

Proclaimed ready to mass produce medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Japan and US military bases there.

May 28

A short-range ballistic missile launched from near Wonsan Airfield. This latest launch was aimed at testing a new precision-guidance system.

June 8

Fired several anti-ship cruise missiles off its east coast from the city of Wonsan. They flew about 200km before landing in the water.

Source: ABC News and BBC News

Top photo from George Yeo Facebook

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