Unfortunately, Mothership.sg didn't get it all wrong in our predictions of various things in Singapore in 2015.

We were spot on regarding where the high-speed rail was located, the number of SEA Games gold medals we would win, and the birth of an SG50 celebrity baby (Joanne Peh and Qi Yuwu). We were also correct in predicting a cabinet reshuffle, the emergence of new sociopolitical sites and the lack of significant protests at Hong Lim Park.

But we were totally wrong about very important things — the winning Toto numbers and the General Election date. We also thought that swimmer Joseph Schooling was an easy correct pick as the most bemedalled athlete at the SEA Games, but we were wrong. It was Quah Zheng Wen who won the most medals at 12 (but fewer golds than Schooling).

Anyway, we shall tempt fate again with a fresh round for this year.

Looking ahead (and towards the #FutureOfUs), Mothership.sg will sayang our crystal ball and distill some of the issues which may dictate headlines in 2016.

POLITICS

1. Will the presidential election be held this year?

No. Those who remembered the double elections of 2011 - General Election (GE) and Presidential Election (PE) - could be looking forward to scratching an election itch, following GE 2015.

It is unlikely to held this year for the following reasons:

Mathematical: 2011 + 6 = 2017, not 2016. Article 20 provides that the President is elected for a six-year term by the citizens and subject to no term limits.

Tradition: PE, if contested, had been held every six years, going back to 1993. Nomination Day is usually 17 or 18 August. If tradition remains, nomination day is likely to be 16 August 2017, on a Wednesday.

Political: The Elected Presidency (EP) scheme may experience amendments before the next PE.

For instance, Article 5 (2A) is not brought into operation. We are no constitutional law experts, so we better let NUS law professor and former NMP Thio Li-ann explain:

"Article 5(2A) was designed primarily to deal with the new Elected Presidency scheme, though it does also related to other provisions, including fundamental liberties (Part IV), regulations concerning general elections and dissolution of Parliament (Articles 65, 66). Thus, a constitutional amendment bill which seeks to amend the Elected Presidency will require the support of two-third majority at a national referendum unless the President otherwise directs the Speaker in writing, whereupon only a two-thirds special parliamentary majority is required." Thio Li-ann, Singapore Chronicles: Presidency,pg.31

Thio said that the government considered that the EP scheme might need to be amended or changed, hence, Article 5(2A) is not brought into operation.

2016, with PAP holding more than two-thirds majority in Parliament, will be a good time to make some tweaks to the EP scheme before the next PE in 2017. - Martino Tan

2. Will there be a Cabinet reshuffle this year? Will we see the emergence of a front-runner for the 4th PM?

Yes and No.

Yes, it is likely that there will be a mini cabinet reshuffle this year.

No, it is still too early to predict who the fourth PM will be. We will have to take 2016 to assess Heng Swee Keat's first budget speech as a Finance Minister, Chan Chun Sing's first year as NTUC Secretary-General and witness the promotion of Acting Ministers Ong Ye Kung and Ng Chee Meng.

There has been a cabinet reshuffle every year since the last GE in 2011. In 2015, there was two cabinet reshuffles - before and after GE 2015.

The current team of office-holders is bigger than usual. At 37 office-holders and 20 full and Acting Ministers, the team in PM Lee's words, is "a transition team". PM Lee also mentioned that he would do a "mid-term review and make further changes".

The key question in the mini cabinet reshuffle - will we see the promotion of the two Acting Education Ministers to full Ministers?

Among the fourth generation leaders, three were acting Ministers before they were promoted as full Ministers. Below is the time taken for them to be promoted:

1 year 6 months: Lawrence Wong was Acting Minister for Culture, Community and Youth from November 1 2012, and became Minister for Culture, Community and Youth from May 1 2014.

1 year 9 months: Tan Chuan-Jin was the Acting Minister for Manpower from August 1 2012, and Minister for Manpower from May 1 2014.

2 years 5 months: Chan Chun Sing was Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports from 21 May 2011 , and became Minister for Social and Family Development from 1 November 2013.

However, age and experience are factors to consider too.

Both Ong (45 years old) and Ng (47 years old) are older and more experienced than Wong, Tan and Chan when the three were appointed Acting Ministers at the age of 39, 43, and 41 respectively.

Hence, both may take less than 2 years to become full Ministers. This means promotions to full Ministers this year are likely, unless the teachers are really unhappy about having to pay for carparking. – Martino Tan

3. How will March 23rd be remembered or commemorated?  

Thanks to our "On This Day" function on Facebook, we're pretty sure that it'll be flooded with tributes, quotes, out-of-context quotes, quotes-with-pictures and messages from admirers of the late Lee Kuan Yew. We'll probably hear something from the very Facebook-savvy PM Lee too.

A minute of silence at some point, perhaps?

Apart from that, we reckon the activists and grassroots leaders in Tanjong Pagar GRC will plan a one-year-anniversary memorial for him — as would numerous other organisations and groups associated with him. We're also pretty sure we can repeat this next year, and the year after, and the year after, and... - Jeanette Tan

4. What will be the overused government word after SG50 in 2016?

It was SG50 in 2015 and "Our Singapore Conversations" in 2013.

We expect "Future"and "SGfuture" to feature prominently in the government lexicon this year. This is because the government is kicking off another series of citizen engagement sessions, this time led by Ministers Grace Fu and Chan Chun Sing.

The Our Singapore Conversation in 2013 involved more than 660 dialogue sessions, with 50,000 Singaporeans involved. Expect these sessions to be even more extensive. - Martino Tan

CURRENT AFFAIRS

5. Will there be changes to housing policies this year? For instance, will the government make changes to the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) or remove the additional buyer stamp duty (ABSD)?

No. The government will continue to maintain the TDSR in 2016. It is the most effective measure introduced to curb speculation in the residential market. - Ryan Cheang

6. Will there be changes to the tax rates for foreigners and/or non-residents in Singapore?

Yes. By the second or third quarter of this year, the government will probably roll out two tiers of ABSD, by focusing on no ABSD for properties costing above $4 million.

The market, as it stands, is subdued and prices have bottomed out due to the lack of foreign buyer participation.

This segment of property costing upwards of $4 million is out of reach for most of the population, so doing this will help alleviate the pressure faced by listed developers with unsold high-end inventory facing hefty extension charges in their condo projects.

This will support foreign buying activity in the high-end sector of the market. - Ryan Cheang

7. Will there be haze this year?

Most definitely, yes. The haze is an annual event, taking place nearly every year over the past 43 since it began (in 1972).

And it's only been getting worse, especially in the past three years. In 2013, we saw a record 401 on the three-hour PSI reading (which the gahmen tells us not to focus on, but nonetheless) on June 21, around lunchtime.

3-hour PSI is 401. Issued 12pm. http://t.co/jWFeoz49pP

— NEA (@NEAsg) June 21, 2013

This tweet probably shocked NEA with how well it performed.

Last year, the 24-hour PSI reading range (uh huh, take that, NEA) across Singapore hit a high of 267-322 on September 25, the day schools were closed. It went down after that, thankfully, but not without a strange and frightening peak of PM2.5 levels later in October:

Hope you've still got your stockpile of N95 masks at home ready. - Jeanette Tan

8. Will there be more massive train disruptions (since one has already happened so far)? 

Yes. Train breakdowns and disruptions are a way of life and should not be considered a rare event with a small chance of happening.

Singaporeans need to change their mindset and factor in the fact that the trains can, and will, break down anytime. It's simple, really — always have an alternative plan for transport arrangements, especially when it comes to critical times, like taking exams or getting married. - Belmont Lay

9. Will there be more protests?

2016 will be a very quiet year for civil society, with more of the same coming on.

As with last year, we'll see the anti-LGBT camp pushing back against movements like Pink Dot, which in recent years has been gaining more traction among Singaporean youth.

What we might find more of, though, are conservative Singaporeans ramping up their efforts to entrench their beliefs in Singapore law, despite the PAP (and WP’s) quite non-responsive stance towards liberalism.

As to who will rise to fill the gap left by #ReturnOurCPF and the anti-Population White Paper movement, your guess is as good as mine.

It’s clear now that there is no successor to the #ReturnOurCPF movement — arguably the biggest thing in 2014 politics — since an internal split between the two leading activists (Han Hui Hui and Roy Ngerng) led to the movement more or less crumbling during the GE. His case just resolved with $150,000 in damages paid to PM Lee, Ngerng is unlikely to begin another round of advocacy anytime soon. It was also in the course of the election that Han was informed of the truth of her popularity, courtesy of Radin Mas SMC.

In light of the above, we doubt either will gain enough traction to start a new movement. - Ng Yi Shu

SPORTS

10. Who will win the English Premier League this year?

Arsenal, and that's if they boost their squad.

Traditionally, Arsenal lose their bearings during the festive run-in. This year, however, they not only managed to pick up 12 points from a maximum of 15 points last December. The Gunners only picked up 13 out of 18 points during the same month in the 14/15 season and 11 points out of 18 in the 13/14 season.

To keep up the good run, Arsene Wenger needs to invest in more players this January when the window opens, preferably a striker (they are heavily linked with Borussia Dortmund's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang) and a defensive midfielder (to provide coverage for the injured Francis Coquelin). - Tan Xing Qi

11. Will Joseph Schooling win an Olympic medal this year? / Will Singapore win an Olympic medal this year?

Yes. The signs look good: Schooling won Singapore’s first swimming medal at the world championships, a bronze in the 100m butterfly, with an Asian record of 50.96s.

2014 Commonwealth Games 100m butterfly: 51:69s

2014 Asian Games 100m butterfly: 51.76s (New Games record)

In a year, Schooling successfully shaved off almost one second, an impressive feat in a sport that goes down right to one-tenth of a second. The world record (49.82s) was set by his idol Michael Phelps back in 2009 when he was 24. Can Schooling come close? At just 20 years of age, the sky's the limit for him. - Tan Xing Qi

LIFESTYLE

12. Will Netflix be a big threat to pay-TV providers like Singtel and StarHub?

Yes and No. The better question to ask is this - Will consumers be better off?

The optimistic answer is - Yes.

Netflix has been well-known for possessing a rich and high-quality library of on-demand TV shows and movies. People who subscribe to it can watch shows at their own pace, and Netflix even recommends new shows to subscribers based on their viewing habits.

And costing only $10 for its lowest tier and about $17 for its premium tier, Netflix represents value-for-money, considering consumers pay at least $20 and up for various combinations of movies and popular American TV shows from current pay-TV operators.

But will Netflix kill Singtel and StarHub?

No. There are two main things that Netflix lack for the moment: Sports and Asian content.

We can be sure that there will be people who will ditch their pay-TV subscriptions for Netflix, but Singtel and StarHub have already started to approach Netflix for tie-ups to potentially keep these people as paying customers. - Jonathan Lim

13. What Stephen Chow movie will Ch 8 re-run during this year's Chinese New Year?

The bet is on 1992's All's Well That End's Well. This movie is a He Sui Pian, or New Year's Film, that was shot for the Chinese New Year of 1992.

24 years later, the film company announced that it will be re-releasing an extended high-definition version of this film.

So in typical Mediacorp fashion, when there is a sequel or a re-released version of a film, the broadcaster will definitely show the older version of the film - such as airing Iron Man 2 when Iron Man 3 is released.

So that's our guess. All's Well That End's Well 1992 as the Stephen Chow re-run for CNY 2016.

Here's the trailer for the extended high-definition edition:

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- Jonathan Lim

14. Will we see the return of Jon Snow in HBO’s Game of Thrones?

Of course. Don’t be silly. - He Ruiming

15. How about the end of wanderlust/quit my job without a plan/do what you love articles?

I think as a species we need to collectively accept that this is who we are now. Deal with it. - He Ruiming

16: Will the otters get into trouble with humans this year?

Yes. The otters have increased their popularity in Singapore, having become Singaporeanised, assimilated into local society and warmed the hearts of those who met them. Their widespread fame might be a threat to them though, as some Singaporeans cross the line and get to close to them. Humans are inadvertently a terrible species. - Belmont Lay

Related article:

Mothership.sg’s 15 predictions: Singapore in 2015

Top photo from the YourSingapore Facebook page.

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