Clinton very, very high chance of beating Trump, plenty of stat models predict

If election held this week, Clinton would win convincingly.

Belmont Lay | October 23, 2016, 04:38 AM

Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton looks set to beat Republican hopeful Donald Trump by a huge enough margin, losing only in the event of a fluke.

The former First Lady has maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the US presidency, as plenty of stat models out of the US on Saturday churned out reports showing the winning or losing probability of each candidate, two weeks before Americans head to the Nov. 8 polls.

 

The New York Times:

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FiveThirtyEight:

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Huffington Post:

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Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need, should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win the presidency.

Some, such as Reuters, predicted the most likely outcome to be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.

Clinton has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week.

How US Presidential Election works:

When a voter casts a vote, the voter is not electing the president. (Contrary to popular belief or misconception.)

The voter is telling the state’s electoral-college electors how to vote.

In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion.

If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton -- and none will vote for Donald Trump.

Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome of an election.

In the event of a tie, the newly-elected House of Representatives will elect the president, and the newly-elected Senate will elect the vice president.

 

Top photo via Wikimedia

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