Does WP have a case for Daniel Goh to take the NCMP seat?

TLDR: It's really up to the PAP.

Jonathan Lim| January 19, 06:14 PM

If you've missed the brouhaha, here's a quick recap of what's happened so far:

1. The Workers' Party (WP) had been allocated three Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) seats after General Elections 2015. NCMPs are given to the 'best losers' in the election - candidates who received the highest votes among the unelected candidates from the Opposition parties. This means that at least 9 MPs in Parliament are made up of MPs who are not from the ruling party.

WP won six seats after securing Aljunied and Hougang during GE2015. Which leaves 3 NCMP seats available. Lee Li Lian, Dennis Tan, and Leon Perera were declared as the three NCMPs by the Elections Department as they received the top three highest votes among the Opposition.

2. The front-runner of the first NCMP seat, Lee, confirmed in Sept. 2015 that she would not be taking up the seat. WP, in Sept. 2015, had signaled their intention to replace her with NUS professor Daniel Goh who was from the same GRC team as Leon Perera.

3. Leader of the House Minister Grace Fu released a statement on Jan. 17 2016 asking WP to file a motion in Parliament if they wanted Goh to be an NCMP. She chided Lee for vacating her seat. WP has filed a motion with Parliament on Jan. 15 2016.

So the question now is, will WP get what it wants?

What does the Statutes say about WP's wishes?

Let's examine this part about a candidate failing to take an Oath of Allegiance (we bold the bit to look out for):

53.—(1) Subject to subsection (3), if any non-constituency Member declared to be elected under section 52 fails to take and subscribe before Parliament the Oath of Allegiance under Article 61 of the Constitution at the first or second sitting of Parliament during its first session after the general election, Parliament may by resolution declare that his seat has become vacant and that it be filled by the next succeeding candidate at the general election in the order of priority as determined in accordance with section 52(2) from among those candidates who are eligible to be elected as non-constituency Members and have not been so elected.

If Lee does not take the oath, Parliament may by resolution - i.e. submitting a written motion, which WP already did, and then Parliament to vote on the motion - declare the seat empty, and the next best candidate will be eligible to be the next NCMP.

Whether the written motion goes through after a vote between the MPs is another matter.

Who is the next best candidate?

For this let's look at the following:

Best losers WP

If Punggol East SMC were taken out of the picture, you would think that the next three best candidates will be taken from Fengshan SMC, East Coast GRC, and Sengkang West SMC, hence discounting Goh, right?

You're wrong.

Under the Statutes, "each candidate in a group for any group representation constituency shall be deemed to have received in respect of that constituency the percentage of the votes polled by that group in that constituency."

In other words, Goh and other members of the WP East Coast GRC team (excluding Perera) are eligible to take up the vacated NCMP seat. A maximum of two NCMPs can come from the same GRC team.

Only if WP declines to fill the last NCMP seat with someone from the East Coast GRC team will the opportunity be passed on to the Sengkang West SMC candidate Koh Choong Yong.

How will Parliament vote on this?

The People's Action Party currently has 83 seats - that is 83 votes. While WP, excluding NCMPs Tan and Perera, have 6 seats (and votes).

Should a vote be called following the motion, the PAP will decide whether WP's motion succeed or fail. This is especially so if Party Whip Chan Chun Sing does not 'lift the whip' and force MPs to vote along party lines.

But would PAP not want to fill this NCMP seat?

Spirit of the NCMP scheme

In an interview with Today, SMU School of Law assistant professor Jack Lee said there was “no reason for the PAP not to fill it, as it in the spirit of the NCMP scheme”.

Constitutional law expert Kevin Tan also told The Straits Times that his reading of Article 39 of the Constitution and of Section 52 of the Parliamentary Elections Act obliges Parliament to have three NCMPs for this term.

However, another expert, former Nominated MP Thio Li-Ann, however, told The Straits Times that Parliament may opt to leave the seat vacant.

The NCMP scheme was introduced in 1984 after the PAP won all seats in the four GEs since Singapore's independence. Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew argued then that the NCMP scheme would ensure that opposition voices would be heard in Parliament.

In a Singapore Perspectives 2016 session where Minister Chan Chun Sing was a guest speaker, he was asked by moderator Warren Fernandez Editor of The Straits Times what he views were on PAP's 69.9% victory in GE2015, and Minister Chan had this to say about the NCMP scheme:

"We understand that as society becomes more diverse, there will be greater desire for the plurality of views to be heard. And incidentally, this is the reason why this Government, the PAP Government, the NMP system, the NCMP system - from a position of strength, as I would call it.

Why? Because it does not need to, if it does not want to. Or if it feels that it does not want to listen to alternative opinions.

In every election, at the start of the election, we are guaranteed that at least 15 to 20 per cent of the seats in Parliament will be populated by non-PAP, non-established people. Because even assuming the PAP winning all 89 seats, there will minimally be 9 NCMPs, another 9 NMPs.

...

It is because we recognise that to govern well, and to meet the aspirations of our people for greater plurality of views, we are prepared, we are confident that we should allow and institutionalise in our system, this plurality of views.

Having said that, it does not mean that the 80-odd PAP candidates are monolithic. They all have their views. They all have their perspectives."

Will PAP's Party Whip make his fellow PAP MPs vote for WP's motion to let Lee vacate her NCMP seat and for Goh to take her place in the name of plurality of views?

It would be interesting to find out.

Related article:

Grace Fu gets egg on face, asked why WP did not move motion in Parliament when they already did

Top image by Lim Weixiang

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