4 reasons why PM Lee will engage in a rather radical Cabinet reshuffle

We are likely to see two potential ministers in the new cabinet, the possible retirement of a minister, and many ministers in different portfolios.

Martino Tan| September 18, 05:20 PM

Photos by Pandora Wong, Christopher Wong, Sean Yeo, Lim Weixiang and Edwin Koo.

On Sept. 12, a day after the General Election 2015, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told the media what his immediate priority was:

"We need to form a new Cabinet because we have new faces now, we have one or two retirees, and that's what I'll be doing over the next two weeks".

As PM Lee is known for his efficiency, there is a sense of expectation that the Cabinet reshuffle will be completed latest by end of next week.

Anyway, here are four reasons why PM Lee will engage in a rather radical Cabinet reshuffle this time:

1. PM Lee's first cabinet reshuffle after a General Election (GE) usually experienced a larger overhaul of office-holders

PAP lunch rally-Chris5 PM Lee speaking at GE 2015 lunchtime rally (Photo by Christopher Wong)

2006's 1st Cabinet reshuffle after PM Lee's maiden GE as Sec-Gen

Immediate retirement of one Minister, scheduled retirement of two Ministers, eight new political office-holders

(i) There were eight fresh faces among the political office-holders, with four promoted to Ministers eventually. The four were then Ministers of State Grace Fu, Lui Tuck Yew, S Iswaran and Senior Parliamentary Secretary Masagos Zulkifli.

(ii) There were immediate retirements of four political office-holders including Transport Minister Yeo Cheow Tong, Minister of State Chan Soo Sen, Senior Parliamentary Secretaries Yatiman Yusof and Mohamad Maidin Packer and scheduled retirements of Minister for Information, Communications and the Arts Lee Boon Yang and Minister in the PM's Office Lim Boon Heng.

(iii) There was a promotion of Raymond Lim to Transport Minister and the grooming of then Education Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam as the next Finance Minister as he became the Second Finance Minister in 2006.

2011's 1st Cabinet reshuffle

Immediate retirement of five Ministers, Five new political office-holders

(i) There were immediate retirements of five Ministers. They included the founding Prime Minister and then Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, then Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, then Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng, Housing Minister Mah Bow Tan, and Transport Minister Raymond Lim.

GE2015-Results-Edwin Koo-10 Minister Chan Chun Sing (Photo by Edwin Koo)

(ii) Introduction of five fresh faces: They were expected to form part of the core of the PAP's fourth-generation leadership and two spearheaded ministries straight away. Heng Swee Keat became the new Education Minister, while Chan Chun Sing was appointed as the Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports.

Four of them - Heng, Chan, Tan Chuan-Jin, and Lawrence Wong - became Ministers eventually. Sim Ann, who is much younger, is now a Minister of State.

(iii) Of the 14 ministries, 11 had new ministers to helm them.

 

2. PM played a big part in PAP's electoral success and has a strong mandate to reshuffle his cabinet on his own terms

PAP lunch rally-Chris2 PM Lee and ESM Goh (Photo by Christopher Wong)

As former Ang Mo Kio GRC MP Inderjit Singh noted, PM Lee and DPM Tharman Shanmugaratnam probably increased the PAP’s vote share by 4 per cent due to their own personal popularity.

This can also be observed by how the PAP decided to put up posters of PM Lee across the island.

Tanjong_Pagar_GRC_2

Elected as an MP in 1984, PM Lee is now the longest-serving MP in parliament after Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.

These two reasons - PM's strong personal mandate and his years of experience - mean that he would have the clout to seek the earlier retirements of more long-serving Ministers. This will help PAP ensure that the fourth generation group of leaders will take over key Ministries earlier and have more time to forge their own relationships with Singaporeans.

As Gillian Koh, Senior Research Fellow of The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) noted in her commentary ("The shaping up of the 4G leadership") today, "those of Lim Hng Kiang, Lim Swee Say and Dr Yaacob Ibrahim’s vintage may stand down to make way in due course."

3. Quite a number of Ministers have helmed portfolios for several years

Someone, possibly former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, once said that "a week is a long time in politics".

Some Ministers in Singapore must have wondered whether centuries have gone by.

Just check out the number of years some Ministers have served in their porfolios:

Minister for Trade and Industry: 11 years

Minister for Finance: 7 years 9 months

Minister for Law: 7 years 3 months

Minister for Home Affairs: 4 years 3 months

Ministry of Health: 4 years 3 months

Ministry of Environment and Water Resources: 4 years 3 months

Minister for Information and Communications: 4 years 3 months

Minister for National Development: 4 years 3 months

Minister for Defence: 4 years 3 months

Minister for Foreign Affairs: 4 years 3 months

While Singaporeans prefer some form of stability in important portfolios like Finance, Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs and Defence, one wonders whether Singapore should have new Ministers who will "a free hand to rethink and reshape policies".

Anyway, that was what PM Lee said when he made his most radical reshuffle after GE 2011.

In other words, we may see new Ministers in seven Ministries: Trade and Industry, National Development, Health, Information and Communications, Environment and Water Resources, Transport and maybe even Culture, Community and Youth.

The only portfolios to be spared from the cabinet reshuffle? Perhaps the Ministries of Manpower and Social and Family Development. Both Ministers were only there for less than a year.

 

4. There are two potential Ministers to be included in the Cabinet, with the Transport portfolio vacant

If there are two potential Ministers (or more) waiting in the wings, PM Lee would need to find portfolios for them and retire at least one more Minister.

In his post-GE 2015 message (I’ve saved a seat for you) as the People's Action Party secretary-general, PM Lee said,

"This election is a major step forward for our leadership renewal. Joining Heng Swee Keat, Chan Chun Sing, Lawrence Wong and Tan Chuan-Jin from the last batch are Ng Chee Meng, Ong Ye Kung, Chee Hong Tat and Amrin Amin in this round."

PM Lee also highlighted the four men during his lunchtime rally on Sept.an 8.

In 2011, former Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) chief Heng Swee Keat was appointed a full minister - the first time a newly elected MP has stepped straight into the Cabinet since former finance minister Richard Hu in 1984.

Among the four, two men are likely to be appointed as Acting Minister or Minister in this Cabinet reshuffle. They are:

Photo by Lim Weixiang for Mothership.sg MP-elect Ong Ye Kung (Photo by Lim Weixiang)

Who? Ong Ye Kung, Sembawang GRC MP-elect

Current occupation: Director of Group Strategy at Keppel Corporation

Why is he a potential Minister? He was the Principal Private Secretary to PM Lee, and handed over his responsibilities to Culture, Community and Youth Minister Lawrence Wong in 2005. In other words, he was Minister Wong's senior in the civil service.

Portfolio possibilities: Manpower? [He was Deputy Secretary-General of National Trades Union Congress (NTUC), the Chief Executive of the Singapore Workforce Development Agency] Trade and Industry? [He was the Deputy Chief Negotiator for the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement and had a First Class Honours in Economics] Transport? [He was formerly on the Board of SMRT]

 

20150911-PAP_Bedok Stadium Results-SeanYeo-12 MP-elect Ng Chee Meng. (Photo by Sean Yeo)

Who? Ng Chee Meng, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC MP-elect

Current occupation: Former Chief of Defence Force

Why is he a potential Minister? When former Chief of Army Chan joined the cabinet, he was an Acting Minister at Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports (MCYS)  and Minister of State at Ministry of Information, Communications and the Arts (MICA). Ng, who is more senior in rank at SAF, will probably be a Ministerial-material too.

Portfolio possibilities: Culture, Community and Youth or Communications and Information. Those were the first Ministry portfolios managed by former SAF leaders - Chan and Lui Tuck Yew.

 

And the other two leaders? Chee Hong Tat, former Second Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), is likely to be a Minister of State, while Amrin Amin may be appointed a Parliamentary Secretary to replace the gap left by retired Senior Parliamentary Secretary Hawazi Daipi.

20150908_PAPLunchRally_PW-10 Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC MP-elect Chee Hong Tat (Photo by Pandora Wong)

Amrin Amin Sembawang GRC MP-elect Amrin Amin

 

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