A group of undergraduates and postgraduates launched the Singapore Policy Journal in November, with the aim of reintroducing analysis of their university research into public discussion.

Their second essay, by Cheryl Sim, from the National University of Singapore, focused on the Singapore's falling birthrate rate in Singapore and provided three suggestions on how it can be improved. 

Singapore’s citizen population is shrinking.

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 would allow the population to stabilize. However, our TFR is currently 1.2.

[quipbox float="right" boxcolor="000000" boxhead="Is cost really a factor?"]

Common assumption: The high cost of having a child is the main reason why Singaporeans avoid having children. But TFR still declined over the last decade with little sign of reversal even with cash incentives or cost subsidies.

[/quipbox]

The study investigates if a better understanding of the psychology behind having children holds the answer to Singapore’s falling birthrate.

It looks at a couple’s “fertility intentions”, which are the number of children couples want to have and when they want to have them.

The study also explains that the four decisions to have a child is not just a rational cost-benefit analysis, but rather one that is influenced by “behavioural heuristics”.

Behavioural heuristics refer to the effects of psychological, social, and emotional factors on the decision-making process beyond strictly rational cost-benefit assessments.

The figure below summarizes the range of factors influencing fertility intentions.

Background and behavioural factors can directly affect fertility intentions.

However, people of different ages, genders, and other backgrounds may also use behavioural heuristics differently in making their fertility decisions.

Behavioural Factors Cannot be Ignored

One often heard argument is that wealthier or more educated Singaporeans value have fewer children. The study debunks this idea.

Singaporeans across income and educational backgrounds in fact want the same number of children. Backgrounds only matter for when a couple has kids. All else being equal, richer women and more educated men are more likely to wait to have children.

The real reason of postponing having children? There is an assumption that having children in future will cost less than it does now.

This is a mistake: the cost of living actually increases over time. But as psychologists have long known, people tend to over-discount costs that are in the future.

Different sorts of people make this mistake: High-earning women (up to a point) make the mistake.But the same is not true of high-earning men; rather, it is lower income men who postpone having kids for that reason.

Given that having children is a joint decision, this could explain why both high and low income couples end up postponing having kids.

Waiting has serious consequences. Couples who don’t have kids early in their marriage are more likely to end up childless eventually.

The study suggests three refinements for fertility policy in Singapore:

1. Change perceived costs, not actual costs

The perception of costs is the key factor that needs to be addressed.

Monetary incentives may change actual costs, but might not change the perceptions of costs in peoples’ minds. In fact, such incentives could even backfire because they encourage the perception that having a baby is expensive.

The solution is to offset expenses without reminding people of costs. Non-monetary solutions, such as creating supportive workplace environments for mothers, may do this.

2. Refine the message

Most messaging so far has focused on the importance of having a child or doing a national “duty”. But most Singaporeans already think that having a child is important.

The real problem is that people underestimate how much it will cost to have kids in future, and overestimate how much it costs now.

So a more effective campaign would help couples figure out how much having a kid really costs.

One experiment is to ask people to actually break down the different costs for having a child. After doing so, respondents in the study reduced their cost estimates.

3. Different strokes for different folks

There is no one-size-fits all message that will work.

Behavioural heuristics have different effects depending on gender and income. There should be separate messages targeting different demographics, in terms of gender and earning abilities.

The article is reproduced with permission from the Singapore Policy Journal.

Have a response or an article of your own? Visit Singapore Policy Journal Facebook for more such articles. 

Article you may like:

4 ways how S'poreans can be more comfortable with foreigners in our midst

Top photo from Maybe Baby Facebook page.

If you like what you read, follow us on Facebook and Twitter to get the latest updates.